As is usual after a by-election sensation, everybody in politics and the media piles in with an opinion ranging from the dismissive to the ground breaking. Cameron says he will get the seat back next May. In the past after one of these dramas he would have. But this time things are different.
First everybody, even many of the elderly, is connected to everybody by social media and informed by such a variety of news streams that media management is difficult and manipulation impossible. Second, whereas in 1945 Labour and the Tories took 98% of all votes, in 2015 they are predicted to get around 60%. Third, politicians are now regarded as snake oil salespeople; unless they are from UKIP. Fourth politicians from the Big Three parties have lost control of the political weather. Finally there is underpinning the public mood a rise of two forms of nationalism, Scottish and English, and the main parties are in trouble with both.
Labour is in serious trouble north of the border and the Scottish Nationalists are set to gain loads of their seats, making a Labour majority in Westminster difficult to pull off. Now there are also being branded as anti-English because of a stupid tweet. If that idea takes hold there is no hope of victory in May 2015. But Cameron is set to gain not one single vote from these Labour difficulties, as he leads a split party, makes policy on the hoof, fails to foresee the consequences of his actions and may be facing a deteriorating economic climate. What is different about the present political situation and why no political pundit has a clue what may happen,is because for the first time ever both Tory and Labour fed ups are headed to the same place, or the same two places.
North of the border they are going to the Scot Nats. South of the border they are going to UKIP. It is these two parties which will decide the outcome of the general election and there is now nothing that any of the others can do to change that.
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