There is no doubt David Cameron is a decent compassionate man with whom most people would feel they have a lot in common. He is courageous and patriotic and always does what he thinks is best for his country. Setting up the Coalition government was a bold move that few would have made in a country averse, up till now, to the notion of coalition. His weakness is judgement over policy and where it will lead, allied to misjudgement of opponents as well as allies. In a Prime Minister this is like an up to the minute airliner with every refinement of technology, but with faulty engines. Both prime minister and plane are dangerous.
On economic policy he and his chancellor elected to go for an economic recovery driven by house price inflation, funded by a QE programme that meant the benefits of that recovery fell into the lap of the financial sector and the top two per cent of the population. To prevent the house price bubble exploding measures restricting lending have come into force, which has slowed the price rise but also is slowing the recovery. Wages are falling in real value while the salaries of the top managers are accelerating many times faster than inflation. The tax take is falling and the deficit is rising, whilst the accumulated debt mountain, both of government and households, is getting bigger. The only thing left to offer is more cuts. This is not a good place to be and especially not before a general election.
Foreign policy, if anything, is worse. The first bold move was Libya. This has proved a monumental error of judgement leading to yet another failed state in which many foolish hands played their part, but in which Cameron was a prime mover. Next comes the bust up with the EU with whom Cameron is on a collision course on almost every single issue. This may be good for the Tory Right and those legions of his members who have debunked to UKIP, but these are a minority both in his party and in the country. The TUC, the CBI and the Great Silent Majority are very concerned at the idea of leaving the EU, especially as nobody has a clue what would come after. So business investment is slowing up.
Moreover Cameron nearly lost the Union and might very well have, but for the dynamic intervention of a Gordon Brown, rejuvenated and in campaigning form unseen before in his career. If Cameron bumbles and blusters to the EU exit, Scotland will definitely exit the UK. Is this the right way forward?
And then there is Russia. Even the anti-Putin Gorbachev is critical. All this nonsense about the break away provinces having an illegal vote. In a true democracy no mass vote of free people can be ‘illegal’. This only happens when votes occur in police states. Popular votes of those in residence in a territory is how Britain lays claim to the Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and the northern provinces of Ireland. A new cold war will be hugely economically damaging to the West, as well as very much more dangerous than the last cold war, not least because of the ineptitude of so many Western politicians. Russia still has the capacity to wipe out the US in approximately thirty minutes. In that scenario Britain would be a cinder, whatever its Trident submarines did.
And then there is ISIS. This product of the West’s misguided policies in the Middle East and Afghanistan cannot be defeated as it will simply re-emerge in another form. It has to be contained and at some point tamed. This cannot be done without two key allies. Russia and Iran. Oh dear, but they are Cameron’s baddies.
It is not Milliband’s leadership which should be under threat, but Cameron’s.
