First we must look at the rise of the Islamic State and its implications for other shaky states in the Middle East. It is too late now to roll it back. The bloodshed and mayhem would be endless. The policy will have to be to contain it within boundaries which will include parts of Syria and Iraq which it already occupies. Syria will become smaller and it would make strategic sense for the Free Syrian Army to join with Assad to regain the territory occupied by other Islamist elements, mostly Al Qaeda led. Surviving extremists will disperse into the Islamic State. This is political dynamite but the only way out of a war without end.
What is left of Iraq will then have to be broken up into a self governing Shia province, one for moderate Sunnis and another for the Kurds. Whether Iraq as a country could survive as a kind of umbrella confederation remains to be seen, but it should not be a condition. This would require the collapse of every previous aspiration, but once again, it is pointless to continue with endless bloodshed to try and re-create something which has been clumsily destroyed and which cannot any longer be held together either by force or consensus.
To achieve all this there is a pre-condition. The covert partnership between the West, Iran and Russia, linked in common interest by the game changing emergence of ISIS, must become overt and full hearted. This will require the West to settle its differences with Moscow over the Ukraine and for a deal to be struck over Iran’s nuclear programme. When all that is done, the way will be open for the final prize; peace between Israel and the Palestinians via a two state solution, which gives a fair deal to both. Neither will ever agree to terms acceptable to the other. The solution will have to be imposed by the international community, in particular upon Israel. This is why all must stand together to impose the settlement and guarantee the resultant peace.
Palestine must become a viable state able to build a strong economy with a population as free to move about as any other. Its militias must renounce terrorism and be regrouped into a conventional defence force in a generally de-militarised area. Israel will have to significantly reduce its armed forces and set out on a peaceful future unthreatened but also unthreatening. It must also be disarmed of nuclear weapons. That will only be possible if Iran does not acquire them.
Finally Russia must become a part of NATO and the EU. All of this will take time, but the value of the outcome makes the effort worthwhile.
