The dual signals now coming from Russia are in the classic conflicting form of the diplomatic message that the time has come to talk. On the one hand Russia has used its influence to make the separatists yield up control of the MH17 crash site and has not given any decisive help to separatist fighters as they lose ground to the advancing Ukrainian army. On the other it has announced a major air exercise close to the Ukraine border.
The West can therefore claim that its targeted sanctions have had some effect, while Russia can assert it will no longer be lectured and pushed around. The separatists can see that union with Russia is a fading hope, while Kiev can see that full control of the eastern provinces without some kind of federal structure allowing a good deal of autonomy is impossible. So it should be feasible to find a way forward to end the crisis and the West needs to start the ball rolling. It will find it will roll easily to Moscow; it will not be uphill.
Failure to do that while maintaining a programme of isolating Russia, may provoke Moscow to lash out with an unexpected military move. The Russian military is tactically cleverer than that of the Western powers, not least because of a simpler command structure. Some will remember their lightening seizure of Pristina Airport at the end of the Kosovo war. Their move in response to Georgia’s foolhardy attack on South Ossetia was fast, effective and final. Moreover there has been no trouble since and Georgia has recovered its humiliation and prospered. This is in sharp contrast to the chaos and violence continuing in every country in which the West has intervened militarily since 9/11.
Looking at the statistics indicates no reason for the West to be paranoid about Russia. The combined populations of the US and EU are plus 800 million, whereas Russia has under 150 million. In economic terms the combined economies of the U.S and EU are 16x that of Russia. The total defence expenditure of NATO countries including the US was close on $ 1 trillion in 2012, while Russia spent $90 billion. These margins are more than enough to enable the West to come up with a foreign policy stronger than appeasement but short of bullying. At all costs there must be the recognition that Russia is very nervous about both NATO’s and the EU’s advance eastwards and any solution will either have to bring Russia into both as a full member, or recognise a sphere of influence for her in her near abroad.
Let us hope there is a leader in the West with the vision to start the discussion. One thing is for sure. It won’t be Cameron.