Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

This country is not used to fixed term parliaments and rarely experiences a five year government. It has only experienced coalition previously in wartime. It is therefore not surprising that Labour has to feel its way forward as the Opposition party. At the beginning the Coalition had a free ride, while Labour elected a new leader and when it chose the wrong one the government chuckled. Not for long however, as Ed Milliband turned out to be a much tougher Opposition leader than expected, with Parliamentary performances often rated above Cameron’s own. Labour’s lead in the polls widened. The government’s economic policies  did not achieve the expected recovery and UKIP went on the rampage in the Tory shires. Labour’s lead grew bigger.

Now it has all gone wrong. Labour’s lead in the polls is shrinking and could be wiped out in the campaign of 2015. The chances of a clear majority are slipping. They could win, but not outright, and have to go to Clegg for backup. This is not what they want. To avoid that prospect they have to stop behaving like an opposition and become an alternative government in waiting. That requires a clear set of principles by which they intend to govern, a clear set of policies to give effect to their mission and a clear strategy by which they plan to win.

All of this is currently missing. Voters ask what is their mission? The reply is muddled, sometimes meaningless and never recalled the day after. Nobody knows what Labour stands for or where it is headed or what it would do if given the chance. Even its own shadow cabinet members are themselves beginning to ask when, where to and why. They now issue warnings about drift, whilst proclaiming loyalty to the leadership, itself the signature of the plotter.

It is not too late for Milliband and his people to come up with something good, but it nearly is. The Milliband leadership, so recently full of promise, is now perilously close to re-launches and fight-backs. Like the leadership of Ian Duncan-Smith of the Tories, once that happens it is over.

Nobody gains from the crisis now splitting Egypt apart. Neither the army, nor the Muslim Brotherhood nor the millions of neutral Egyptians who just want their normal country back. Meanwhile hundreds die.

The West is confused as to how it should react. Morsi’s presidency was clearly a disaster for all Egyptians who do not support the Muslim Brotherhood and hardly good for the secular and economic well being of even its own members. Most Egyptians supported the Army takeover and the Western capitals did not rush to condemn it. Had the Army announced that the constitution would be amended to provide a secular framework upon which democratic institutions could stand, following which elections would again be held, with the the deposed president  free to run again for the Presidency, all would have been well. It would not have looked like a military coup, Morsi would have been soundly beaten and the Revolution would have progressed.

Unfortunately the Army did not do that and maybe that is because it could not guarantee to its own satisfaction that the above sequence would follow. There are a number of reasons for this, including the absence of established democratic institutions and a lack of consensus which enables the losers in an election to be governed by those in the majority whom they voted against. Democracy confers authority on the winners, not power.  There is one other factor which is contributing to the current turmoil and bloodshed. In the whole country there are only two organisations which are organised with sufficient cohesion to effect outcomes. The one is the Muslim Brotherhood, the other is the Army. The majority of Egyptians who want a democratic secular state free of religious or military domination, have no leader and no political organisation. It is into this vacuum that the Army has stepped and where it is likely to stay.

How it will end or where it will lead is unclear. The loss of life among protesters is shocking. The West cries out and wrings its hands. Maybe that is, for the moment, the best it can do.