This country is not used to fixed term parliaments and rarely experiences a five year government. It has only experienced coalition previously in wartime. It is therefore not surprising that Labour has to feel its way forward as the Opposition party. At the beginning the Coalition had a free ride, while Labour elected a new leader and when it chose the wrong one the government chuckled. Not for long however, as Ed Milliband turned out to be a much tougher Opposition leader than expected, with Parliamentary performances often rated above Cameron’s own. Labour’s lead in the polls widened. The government’s economic policies did not achieve the expected recovery and UKIP went on the rampage in the Tory shires. Labour’s lead grew bigger.
Now it has all gone wrong. Labour’s lead in the polls is shrinking and could be wiped out in the campaign of 2015. The chances of a clear majority are slipping. They could win, but not outright, and have to go to Clegg for backup. This is not what they want. To avoid that prospect they have to stop behaving like an opposition and become an alternative government in waiting. That requires a clear set of principles by which they intend to govern, a clear set of policies to give effect to their mission and a clear strategy by which they plan to win.
All of this is currently missing. Voters ask what is their mission? The reply is muddled, sometimes meaningless and never recalled the day after. Nobody knows what Labour stands for or where it is headed or what it would do if given the chance. Even its own shadow cabinet members are themselves beginning to ask when, where to and why. They now issue warnings about drift, whilst proclaiming loyalty to the leadership, itself the signature of the plotter.
It is not too late for Milliband and his people to come up with something good, but it nearly is. The Milliband leadership, so recently full of promise, is now perilously close to re-launches and fight-backs. Like the leadership of Ian Duncan-Smith of the Tories, once that happens it is over.