Archive for September 24th, 2012

Lib Dem Conference: The Challenge of Power

Monday, September 24th, 2012

The Lib Dems cannot reasonably be blamed for clumsiness with the levers of power. They have had to learn on the job.

Unfortunately fate and votes determined that they form a coalition with the Conservatives. This is the party, still, of the view that it is the natural party of power and that it is reasonable to go to any lengths, almost, to gain it. The Tories no doubt thought themselves clever in offering a referendum on the worst option of fair voting, AV, only to campaign to make sure it was lost. They doubtless felt pleased with convoluted and unrealistic compromise for House of Lords reform, knowing their backbenchers would scupper it. Yet the price of Lib Dem support for a Tory led government was fair voting and constitutional reform. In return the Lib Dems undertook to cut and slash and burn and even to break a written pledge not to vote for an increase in tuition fees.

The Lib Dems have managed to raise the tax threshold for low paid workers and to curb the excess of the economics of the Tory right, but the price in electoral terms is disaster. If the disaster cannot be repaired by 2015, it will become an electoral meltdown. The Tories appear to be the winners at the expense of their inexperienced junior partners. However, if you think about it, the Tories may not be as clever as they think.

The Lib Dems now have much more power within the Coalition, since with nothing left to loose, they have found the courage to say NO. Clegg and Co have already scuppered the piece of electoral reform the Tories wanted, boundary changes to create fewer, bigger constituencies, without which they will have more difficulty in 2015 gaining enough seats to win a Tory majority outright. Moreover the Lib Dems have declared their intention to veto any proposal for further cuts, unless balanced by tax increases upon the rich. This will present Osborne with serious political problems as he struggles to balance the national books.

The Lib Dems are now in a battle for electoral credibility. To survive they have to be strident in government and bold with the architecture of their policy platform for 2015. No longer can they go before the electorate with a list of worthy but unrealistic aspirations, knowing that they will never have to implement them. This time they must present radical and clear cut objectives with sufficient electoral sting to ensure that they can deny a majority to either of the two main parties, thus giving the Lib Dems a clear opportunity to make things happen. This is not as difficult as it looks. The Tories will be under pressure from UKIP and Labour could be under serious pressure from Scot Nats in many seats north of the border. Neither the Tories nor Labour will see the Lib Dems as a threat.

Granted this is a tough moment for a party which, for far too long, has been seen as a cosy resting place for the disaffected and uncertain. To turn it to advantage will demand a clear headed radicalism driven by an uncluttered theme. Above all it is surely a moment to be bold.