Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The answer must be yes, but it will be difficult. A faltering economy is the most likely hurdle to deny a US president a second term in normal times. But these are not normal times. When Obama came to office promising change, he faced the biggest economic problems in all America’s history. The scale of the deficits and debts made them almost insoluble. Republican opportunism mixed with Tea Party fundamentalism destroyed the political consensus, essential in time of national emergency. Without it bad things get worse.

Given all that, Obama has done well to stop America sliding into a depression. He has managed anaemic growth and some parts of the industrial and technology base of the economy are doing well. The problem for a mighty industrial power which once made everything it used, but now buys in from China, is that Chinese workers are happy but many US workers without jobs are not. As GB has found, shrinking industry creates real problems of long term unemployment, social exclusion and neighbourhood decay. In America in 2008, great multitudes of voters who had lost all but hope, invested that hope in a vote for Barack Obama. Too many have seen no dividend.

Probably nobody could have done better for them in a single term with a raging financial crisis. What the President has to do now is to convince them he can and will deliver if he is given the mandate to continue. He must inspire them to believe that they are not forgotten and that he will not forget them. He will also need some good economic news as polling day approaches. Either that or a blunder by the Romney campaign. The latter appears, at the moment, more likely.

So, is this government any different to the last one? Yes, but not in the way commentators report.

It has shifted the Tory component to the right. Cameron has removed from areas of controversy ministers who might cause distraction because of their personal views or doings, Hunt, Lansley and Greening, but they are still at the table in different chairs. Ken Clarke, the only cabinet minister with previous experience, remains with a roving brief and a licence to comment on the economy, which could be interesting. Overall the performance of the government is unlikely to change much with this reshuffle any more than all the governments of the past, whatever anybody says. the hard fact is that reshuffles make little difference. Either the government works or it doesn’t. Many fear this one does not work any more. Among those who think that are two of its key members. Cameron and Cable.

The subtle undertone of this bout of musical chairs, is that both the coalition parties know that within a year or so, the partnership will likely end, to allow both to set up their campaign stalls for the general election scheduled for 2015. The Conservatives will remain in power with a minority administration kept afloat by a confidence and supply agreement with the Lib Dems. The people Cameron has put in place create a right leaning core which can be expanded seamlessly into a red blooded Tory government able to blaze a path to a Tory triumph at the polls.

Maybe.

But then again, maybe not.