Ed’s leadership is in trouble. This is very disappointing for this Blog. We thought him the best choice. Can he recover? Probably. What has gone wrong? That is more complex.
First of all I have always been opposed to David. His attachment to the cynical politics of New Labour with its lies, spin, dangerous foreign policy and flawed economics made him a very bad choice for the country. Unfortunately the majority of the members and M.Ps of the Labour Party wanted him as their leader. It was the trade union vote which tipped it by a narrow margin to Ed. The trouble is that Ed is not leading the TUC, he is leading a political party, most of which wanted his brother.
There is a sharp contrast between the two. David is the eloquent, energetic, geeky Mr Busy, who exudes confidence and enthusiasm. Ed is quiet, philosophical and deep. He appears leisurely. He understands what has gone wrong for Labour. Unhappily instead of laying out an energetic programme for reform and realignment, claiming back the working class heartland abandoned by New Labour, he has set up a two year review. As a back-drop perhaps; as the main theme , no. Thus the impression is of a laid back leader, whom nobody wanted, without a coherent economic policy at the moment of great economic challenge, in which all three of his senior colleagues, Johnson, Balls and Cooper are under performing in roles which appear not to suit them.
The focus of the political commentary has turned to the coalition and its tensions, which appears much more absorbing than the official Opposition muttering in the background. All this could change. The government could slip on a banana skin. But it already has. Several in fact. Child benefit, free schools, tuition fees, EMA, Cablegate, dysfunctional airports, a country shut down by snow, is a combination which, say, Thatcher or Blair would have been making hay with and a good deal of it. Labour manages to sound shrill, tired and irrelevant.
Much hinges on the outcome of the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election. If Labour holds the seat, especially with an increased majority (it can hardly get smaller), Ed will have bought time for himself, his team and his party. All must then come together with a coherent energy we do not yet see. If Labour loses it will be a serious setback, though not a disaster. If it is knocked into third place it will be both and more. Whatever happens there is work to be done. Leaders who appear to falter at the starting gun, rarely go on to win the race. Once the phrase fight back is heard on the media, you know there is trouble. I head it this morning on Today.