Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Statecraft

This is a good moment to consider the nature of the appropriate foreign policy of the new government, when it finally arrives. If we get a hung parliament it may be a government of many different colours. 

The key issue now is not the war on terror or Afghanistan, nor is it the Palestinians and Israel, although as this blog has reiterated time and again, this unresolved confrontation in the Middle East should be. It is the once in a generation shift in the tectonic plates of relationships between states made manifest by the global financial crisis. It is about the rise of China as the world’s second power. It is also about the recognition that it will then emerge as the world’s Number One.

It will not be the triumphalist imperialism of the short lived tenure of the United States, neither will it be so short. It will be more subtle, based, more like Britain’s near forgotten Empire, on a foundation of trade, commerce and national wealth. Its capitalism will be state controlled and its governance authoritarian, but that does not mean that it will be harsh or life in its shadow will be without freedom. It will be respectful of the independence of Europe, Russia and India, with whom it will enjoy trade and in which it will invest. America will be its greatest commercial asset and it will not seek to destroy it for good economic reasons. It will watch over America’s economic health just as a multinational manages a local subsidiary. But as every subsidiary management knows, the ultimate power is with Head Office. It will be the age of China Inc. There will be a military arm but not so in evidence as the hardware of the Pentagon or the Kremlin in their heyday. There will be less ‘with us or against us’ simplistic diplomacy and more of  mutual interest, balance and nuance.

This all comes about because of the collapse of the free market economic model of the United States and Britain due to its excessive  reliance on credit, together with its mirage of money based wealth rather than the reality of wealth based money. China, India  Asia  and Russia now have most of their money. It is the start of the decline of the U.S as a super power which cannot be challenged.

This is not bad news. Especially not for Britain, one of history’s greatest trading nations. To take greatest advantage of the quite different opportunities which will present themselves we need to de-couple from the foreign policy of the Americans and follow the subtle, nuanced type of statecraft of which we were once masters. Europe has already detached from America and the feeling is mutual. Russia hangs in the air and needs to be brought closer to Europe. India needs to dis-engage from rivalry with Pakistan and resolve their mutual problems. America must adjust to the new reality it faces, way off  its radar hitherto. Israel has to be made to be reasonable with the Palestinians and the Palestinians in turn must resolve their feuds and present a combination with whom business can be done. 

In all of this the scope for Britain to play a major role as a broker and fixer, using its centuries of experience which have polished its craft to unusual smoothness, will ensure we are still at the centre of events. Maybe not a new golden age but one with a glow certainly.

Gordon Brown

This blog affirms once more its independence of political parties, whilst commenting in robust terms on political issues. The latest excitement revolves round allegations in a new book that Gordon is a bully, to which is added the mysterious claim from an anti-bullying charity which is itself not without controversy and  apparently endorsed by leading Tories, that ‘three or four’  unidentified people had called and sought advice on matters relating to the working atmosphere in 10 Downing Street.

Workplace bullying does exist and it is very unpleasant indeed for those subjected to it. Let us be clear, however, that the kind of bullying that I am repelled by is not what is being discussed in the present media feast. It is a singular achievement to be chosen to work at the very heart of the nation’s government. Nobody has to do it. Anyone who does can leave at any time. So spectacular is the entry on a C.V that a new posting, even in the recession, will come easily.

That there are shouting and tempers behind that famous door is not in doubt. Nor is that new. Churchill became so unpleasant at one point in the war that officials approached his wife for help and she wrote Winston a letter of reproach. Margaret Thatcher was kind and thoughtful to her staff but allegedly reduced her less robust male ministers to tears when their performance fell short. Heath was difficult.  Major referred to his cabinet colleagues as bastards. The story goes on. Some Prime Ministers are calm, but that does not mean they are better leaders or more competent. Blair and all those wars for example.

Gordon Brown is a towering political figure who dwarfs most of those around him in the same way as Thatcher. He, more than Blair, is the force behind Labour’s re-birth and rise to power, after eighteen years out of office. I do not agree with many of his policies and particularly not in regard to the credit crunch, but his leadership at that point both here an overseas saved us all from a meltdown of our entire way of life. He is chronically indecisive on some issues but in a crisis he, like Churchill whose personal flaws were legion, is the man.

He began this election campaign in his own words as the underdog, but bit by bit the gap in the polls is narrowing. These polls now point to a Tory lead that would fail to give Cameron a majority. This is not really due to Brown’s success. It is much more to do with Cameron’s failure and a Tory campaign which is rapidly losing credibility. The Tories needed a break. There is something very odd about this bullying business. Not so much the book. These things happen in politics. More about  the charity. I smell a rat there.