Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Statecraft

This is a good moment to consider the nature of the appropriate foreign policy of the new government, when it finally arrives. If we get a hung parliament it may be a government of many different colours. 

The key issue now is not the war on terror or Afghanistan, nor is it the Palestinians and Israel, although as this blog has reiterated time and again, this unresolved confrontation in the Middle East should be. It is the once in a generation shift in the tectonic plates of relationships between states made manifest by the global financial crisis. It is about the rise of China as the world’s second power. It is also about the recognition that it will then emerge as the world’s Number One.

It will not be the triumphalist imperialism of the short lived tenure of the United States, neither will it be so short. It will be more subtle, based, more like Britain’s near forgotten Empire, on a foundation of trade, commerce and national wealth. Its capitalism will be state controlled and its governance authoritarian, but that does not mean that it will be harsh or life in its shadow will be without freedom. It will be respectful of the independence of Europe, Russia and India, with whom it will enjoy trade and in which it will invest. America will be its greatest commercial asset and it will not seek to destroy it for good economic reasons. It will watch over America’s economic health just as a multinational manages a local subsidiary. But as every subsidiary management knows, the ultimate power is with Head Office. It will be the age of China Inc. There will be a military arm but not so in evidence as the hardware of the Pentagon or the Kremlin in their heyday. There will be less ‘with us or against us’ simplistic diplomacy and more of  mutual interest, balance and nuance.

This all comes about because of the collapse of the free market economic model of the United States and Britain due to its excessive  reliance on credit, together with its mirage of money based wealth rather than the reality of wealth based money. China, India  Asia  and Russia now have most of their money. It is the start of the decline of the U.S as a super power which cannot be challenged.

This is not bad news. Especially not for Britain, one of history’s greatest trading nations. To take greatest advantage of the quite different opportunities which will present themselves we need to de-couple from the foreign policy of the Americans and follow the subtle, nuanced type of statecraft of which we were once masters. Europe has already detached from America and the feeling is mutual. Russia hangs in the air and needs to be brought closer to Europe. India needs to dis-engage from rivalry with Pakistan and resolve their mutual problems. America must adjust to the new reality it faces, way off  its radar hitherto. Israel has to be made to be reasonable with the Palestinians and the Palestinians in turn must resolve their feuds and present a combination with whom business can be done. 

In all of this the scope for Britain to play a major role as a broker and fixer, using its centuries of experience which have polished its craft to unusual smoothness, will ensure we are still at the centre of events. Maybe not a new golden age but one with a glow certainly.

This entry was posted on Monday, February 22nd, 2010 at 2:04 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.