Archive for December, 2009

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

The Chilcot Enquiry

I like the way this inquiry into the Iraq war is going. I know there are some commentators and a good many disappointed lawyers who feel counsel should be employed so that witnesses can be put under pressure in cross examination to reveal a deeper truth. I think it is precisely because the atmosphere is relaxed and the method inquisitorial that we are learning as much as we are. High ranking diplomats and other officials are being extraordinarily blunt about their misgivings about Government policy and scathing about the incompetence and naivity of the Bush administration. They would be on guard under old adversarial system and would be far less frank.

This is why the record of public enquiries in recent years is so dismal. Not only have they cost the earth and the moon and stars as well, but they have had little credibility outside the Westminster village. This one is different. Already we know that our worst fears were well founded. And there is more, a lot more, to come.

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Tony Blair

Of all the important things going on at the moment, and there are a good many competing for the prime spot, none is more important, far reaching or deeper than the ‘see into my heart’ interview given by the former Prime Minister.

It is fundamental because it tells us that with this man at the helm of our country, who at the time I very much admired, what we were told by him was not only clearly wrong about weapons of mass destruction, but if that had been spotted at the time, he would have used some other excuse.

This is not a spat about the level of income tax or asylum rules, it is about invading a sovereign country (albeit rather a frightening one) because we did not approve of its government. It cost the lives not only of our own brave troops but tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of innocent civilians, women and children included. And for what outcome? Continuing instability, bombings and privations years afterwards in a saga of despair lasting longer than the second world war.

Never in history has a ruler of this country so flagrantly abused the trust placed in him by the people. Never again will the people trust their government, not just on little issues of self interest, but on big issues that really matter. This is a disaster, which must be repaired. I have said before that we need a proper Constitution formalise and control the power of government. This episode underlines the reasons why. Among the many constraints and obligations it would embody would be one to make it unconstitutional to wage aggressive war  and invade a foreign country, unless directly threatened. Many civilised democracies have this clause already. Time for us to be counted in.

The notion that home defense starts in the wild mountains at the other end of the earth and thus we have a right to send our military wherever the government of the day(which we cannot from experience trust) decides, is complete, utter and absolute rubbish.

Friday, December 11th, 2009

That Deficit

There seems to be a general agreement that Darling did not come clean on how he was going to cut and where, in order to bring down the deficit after the election. Maybe he knows he won’t have to worry because he expects Labour to lose.

The fact is that we not only have a corrupt Parliament as the latest list of ridiculous expenses and house flippings show, but also a Government that thinks it is savvy to conceal from the British people what has to be done, whoever forms a  new government in 2010.

This new session of Parliament should never have gone ahead and my earlier warning that it was in breach of what our opaque and secretive unwritten Constitution is supposed to stand for in quality of Governance looks even more timely than it did when I made it. Her Majesty was very ill advised to go ahead with a rather cynical piece of theatre. Doubtless she felt she could not resist, although her face on the day spoke volumes. It is in none of our interests for the Government of the day to box in the Head of State, so that she becomes a mere tool and puppet. Especially since, given a free hand, she could run rings round most of them and make mincemeat of them all.

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Iraq Bomb Blasts

This is a dreadful reminder that the story of this tragedy is far from over and that great instability remains in  this fractured state.  It proves once more, if proof were needed, that the concept of liberation by invasion from a foreign power is wholly flawed. Under Saddam Hussein things were not good, although there were times when we thought of him as an ally. Some things are better now, but sadly a good deal is worse. The questions are when the Americans leave will the whole thing break apart into three states, or implode into civil war, or will an iron man emerge to impose order with an iron fist so that we are back to square one?

Or will democracy take root, people agree to unite in disagreement and everything move forward according to the dream?

Monday, December 7th, 2009

Bank Bonuses

This is getting somewhat steamed up. Populist clamour versus professional outrage.

Beneath it all there is something serious. It may be the most serious issue of our time. Huge taxpayer resources have been used to save the banks and bankers from ruin. This means that funds paid by the poorest in taxes have been sucked up to not only prop up the busted banks but to provide the solvency for the people who bust them to carry on earning undreamed of money. But they can only do this because the poorest have lost their jobs and had public services cut. There is something profoundly morally adrift here.

Lets at look at what these people do. They trade in incomprehensible instruments which have the effect of moving huge electronic sums around the financial universe. These profiteers, we are told, are good news because they spend their huge cashes of our money under their control for our benefit. This is rubbish. None of this money gets to inner cities to create home jobs in manufacturing and the like, nor in affordable housing, nor better education, nor healthcare, nor the elderly nor anything socially useful beyond some luxury industries employing in absolute terms a good deal fewer than the spin doctors would have us believe.

This kind of economy is morally corrupt and socially wrong. It is un-Christian. It is also illusory. It thinks it is creating wealth. It does the opposite. It creates no new wealth. It sucks resources from the base of the economy to feed its inflated asset values and dysfunctional balance sheets. It pours ever more resources into the pockets of so called professionals inhabiting a glittering corner of our capital calling themselves bankers, lawyers and accountants. Yet the providers of the essentials of life go with less or borrow more. Some , more and more, go without.

This has to be reined in. History tells us this kind of economic model is unsustainable. It will end in tears. History tells us too that tears may not be all. There may be blood. Time to put a stop.

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Climate Change

There is now an issue of emails. Climate change is not about emails. It is about saving lives. Maybe millions. Maybe billions. Maybe all of it.

We know for sure the climate is changing and has done so constantly throughout the history of the earth.

We do not know for sure, but there is compelling evidence in favour, that man made activity is making things accelerate. It really is not important. Because change will happen either way. Even if Copenhagen exceeds the most optimistic expectations and even if every country delivers and more, we will still, one day, be faced with the fact that some parts of the inhabited world will be under water, other parts will be desert and still others will have been blown to smithereens by super volcanoes. The clever thing now is to start planning how to cope and on what timescale.

It is already too late to get in a fizz about emails.

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Bank Bonuses

The Government must get a grip. These bonuses are preposterous. Earning a million a year out of taxpayers funds is unacceptable. These banks and bankers would be bust, but for our money. They threaten to go abroad. Let them go. The greatest mistake we make at the moment is the fiction that this activity is beneficial. It is not. It is destructive, corrosive, anti social, immoral and greedy. Countries which practice it least have done better in the recession than those which do it most. We do it most of all and are the last to emerge from the decline.

The board of RBS have threatened to resign if the bonuses are not paid. Come on! Deny them the chance. Sack them all today. The time for this blackmail, hijacking of public resourses and tom foolery is over.

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Condolence Letter

I do have more than every sympathy with those brave families who have lost their loved ones fighting in Afghanistan. I think it is remakable that the Prime Minister sends each a personal letter. I do not think it remarkable  that now and again something goes wrong. When it does I find the complaints, often personal, about Gordon Brown, ungenerous, unkind and uncalled for.

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

Phew!

What a relief to hear that those plucky young men and their boat have been set free. Their families will feel the lifting of that dreadful pall of fear and worry.

This is good news too for signals coming out of Iran. Much mischief could have been made of this, but the authorities were punctilious and fair. This is potentially more important than the wild declaration to build not one or two, but ten new atom plants. The latter was clearly designed for home consumption to outflank the hawks. The former is a message to the world at large and to us in particular.

I have argued for some time that our policy towards Iran is wrong. Maybe this is a good moment to re-think.

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

More Troops

Obama was right to take his time. Unfortunately whatever he decided will risk being wrong. Once you embark upon an ill-planned, flawed war, that fails in its primary objective (getting Bin Laden), whatever you do will have a large measure of failure thereafter. The bitter element is that it costs lives of innocent civilians caught up in the conflict and it kills brave troops doing their duty by their country.

Although like Johnson before him with Vietnam, Obama did not start either front of the Iraq/Afghan wars (both triggered by 9/11, the biggest strategic trap into which the West has fallen for a hundred years) but he is left with the mess to resolve. He and his doubting country, will hope, as we surely do here, that a surge will bust the will of the Taliban. This  will enable the Karzai government to discover the integrity to rule its country without corruption and enable its forces to maintain a lasting peace.

This looks perilously close to armchair strategy. From my armchair I see a Taliban bolstered by the ‘invasion’ of more foregn troops, putting up a helluva fight, then melting away, to give the illusion of stability. The foreign troops will come home (remember Vietnam?). The Taliban, or its successors will then return, the new state will collapse and Karzai will hang from a lamppost.

The only thing to prevent that might be if the Taliban came into Government now as the dominant partner and we did an economic deal with them to transform the living standards of their people. But then to do that would be to admit failure. But and a much bigger but, it would stop further bloodshed, reduce regional tension and would not need more troops.

There is only one  prospect in Afghanistan. Mission failure. We might as well have it now as later.