Trailer for Sunday Blog

February 14th, 2020

This blog, as regulars know, is neither pro Tory, nor pro Brexit. But it is pragmatic. So Boris’s reshuffle is good news and Javid’s sacking/resignation is the best news of all. Because it shows that at last this nation will return to government by Number Ten and not by the Treasury, through its poodle of the moment in Number Eleven. This is a colossal sea change and long overdue. For years we have suffered from monumental economic mismanagement leading to inequalities and inefficiencies not seen for generations.

More on Sunday.

As for Boris, he is on a roll. If he stumbles it will be more to do with the sound of smashing plates in the night, than run ins with the Treasury.

SUNDAY BLOG: February 9 2020

February 9th, 2020

Trump: Have the Democrats Failed?

That depends on which side you are on in a very polarised country.  From this side of the Atlantic it seems to me that there have always been two issues which  American voters need to think about. One is about Trump and whether he acted unconstitutionally in his dealings with Ukraine. The other is about the Bidens. Why was the son paid a million dollars a year to sit on the board of a known to be corrupt company, when he had no qualifications or experience relevant to the role? And is it true that the Ukrainian prosecutor investigating corruption in that company was fired after the then Vice-President, Biden Snr., told the Ukrainian government that US aid would be withheld if they did not remove them?

Trump is now acquitted by the Senate. But questions about Biden remain. He is faltering in the primaries and running short of money. He would be a calamitous choice for  the Democrats to run against Trump. The whole impeachment saga has killed his credibility, if not in America, certainly in the rest of the world. So even though the Democrats failed, and failed badly, in their impeachment campaign, which I thought doomed from the start, the removal of Biden from the prospect of running for president, in a perverse way, does them a favour.

Cabinet Reshuffle UK

It is reported that the Boris cabinet will get a substantial makeover in the latter part of the coming week. This has been trailed since his election triumph. It is obvious to everyone that the general tone and performance of post coalition Tory cabinets has not been up to snuff, with too many ministers either below par or out of their depth or fighting each other. In some cases all three.

Government is not just about Brexit, it is about running the country so that people can go about their business and get on with their lives, supported by public services which run smoothly and deliver. Clearly this is not happening now, nor has it been since 2015. So Boris and Cummings have to wield the axe without fear or favour and come up with real talent. Of course one hopes, very much, that women and ethnic minorities will be well represented in the new line up. In their ranks talent abounds, not least because to get there they have had to try a good deal harder to override a system which for centuries has been organised to favour white straight men.

Neighbourhood Crime

Latest statistics reveal that while the police across the country are good at the big stuff the kind of crime, burglaries, car crime, knives, robberies, which affects ordinary people every day, is now all but ignored. A crime number is just about all you can expect to get. Lots of reasons are given, not least Osborne era cuts.

But the main reason is that the Peel model of neighbourhood policing which was designed to prevent crime as much as to solve it, has completely disappeared. We need a nationwide Neighbourhood Police Service to restore the principle of community security, which concentrates on the whole range of small but upsetting threats and fears which spoil the days and nights of far too many.

Post Brexit: A Weekly Blog

February 2nd, 2020

Now that we are formally out of the EU and a new political dynamic will develop, this blog, which has been a bit intermittent of late, will become a weekly commentary. This is partly because it will better reflect a considered view of developing post Brexit political issues, but also to allow me time to concentrate on Zara Vine Two, a project far behind schedule.

For the moment one thing has struck me. There will be a sea change, not just because of Brexit itself, but because for nearly 50 years the nationalist wing of the Tory party has been rampant. Its message was continuous and unending. All our problems were the fault of the EU, which we should never have joined. But now they have won their argument, they and they alone will be responsible for whatever happens next.

As regular readers know I think the European Union is the greatest political achievement since the fall of the Roman Empire. So I am an ardent Remainer.  The thought of the Brexiteers carrying the can for the  multiple outcomes of their folly is rather uplifting.

 

 

Zara Vine: Download or Paperback

February 1st, 2020

Brexit Over? The Way Ahead.

February 1st, 2020

So now it is done. We are formally out of the EU. But we are still in it for the transition. So it is not over yet. We are in the departure lounge waiting for take off. But we are not sure where our flight will take us. We hope it will be somewhere nice. Actually nicer. But more than half the passengers do not want to go at all. So those that do now have to show that their promises can be met, their ideas work, we will be better off than staying put and what is about to happen is a great leap forward and historically uplifting.

This first day of freedom. One which will be forever celebrated as the future unfolds.

Or one which will live in infamy?

Labour’s Challenges Ahead: Tougher Than They Appear.

January 24th, 2020

Labour’s position is a lot more complicated than it looks. It lost the election big time, but with more votes than Milliband, Brown and even Blair, both in 2001 and 2005. But those votes did not translate into seats. Why? Because Labour is the party of working people and its bedrock base had three strong foundations, Scotland, Wales and the smaller industrial towns of the Midlands and the North. In Scotland Labour was wiped out in 2015,  on the Red Wall it crumbled to a disaster under the Boris onslaught, and in Wales they are a lot weaker. But in the South East they won Putney and held Canterbury.

The root of all this lies in New Labour, whose embrace of Thatcher’s economic verities and her destruction of the industrial heartlands, drove large numbers of Labour voters to become non-voters, as the voting figures for the period clearly demonstrate. So to scrabble about in the centre, which has moved left because of Corbyn, will risk putting the party on the right of Boris, leaving him in control of the Red Wall, while the SNP continues to dominate Scotland. Labour will never form a majority government by that route.

Labour is a party of reform. It only governs when voters en masse crave reform. In all its history only three leaders have ever won a majority and governed with their own mandate. Blair, Wilson and Attlee. So Labour has to work out how it can keep very many of the popular elements of its current policy portfolio and match it to a coherent plan of how they will finance an economic reboot with a huge expansion of rewarding well paid jobs for the many. Taxing the rich and robbing Peter to pay Paul was their 2019 undoing. People liked their programme, or most of it, but thought it completely undeliverable by Labour. Labour’s problem is not policy. It is credibility.

Internal splits, over Corbynism, Brexit and  the ongoing issue of anti-Semitism, presented a picture of a fractured party held together by duck tape for the general election, just at the moment when the Tory party, so recently split into countless factions and groupings, came together as one behind Boris. Individually many of Labour’s manifesto proposals had wide public support. Some ideas were clearly extravagant election bribes which should not have got past a coherent economic team able to add up, but there was more good than silly.

The problem was, and will remain, a complete absence of any really ground breaking ideas about how to finance the economic re-modelling of a modern state, in which the many are starved of resources, because the money supply needed to fund it is starved of liquidity. Meanwhile  the ever increasing value of assets without the creation of new wealth, continues to suck what cash there is from the bottom to the top. The rich grow richer at the expense of the poor. Government borrowing is falling, whilst personal debt is the highest in Europe. Interest rates are low, while rates for personal borrowing, even from traditional lenders, are extortionate.

The new leader of the Labour party has to demonstrate a grasp of not just the issue, but also the method behind a solution.That alone will unite behind it both the working class and the educated middle class in all parts of England, leaving Scotland in the hands of the SNP or maybe out of the UK altogether. Tinkering with taxes on the rich and borrowing the rest will not do, nor will it sell to voters. That is the challenge. Meet it and a Labour landslide mandating reform beckons. Fail, or worse if the Boris government solves it first, and it matters not who leads Labour. Because it will be on the road to the margins, far away from any prospect of power.

Royal Rumpus: Time For Change

January 21st, 2020

The rubbish written and spoken by commentators and the media about the Harry and Meghan affair has damaged the so called Royal Family, but not in the way its supporters think. There is absolutely no reason why a mature couple should not have the power to decide how to lead their lives, provided they are not in receipt of public funds.

The notion of this family at the apex of the State is relatively new and certainly not to be confused with the institution of the monarchy, which has evolved over a millennium. The purpose of the monarchy is to provide an impartial Head of State, who is the guardian of good governance and the rule of law. Above politics in the party sense, but not detached from the political responsibility for the maintenance of effective government and the protection of citizens rights.

The problem now engulfing the family itself, as well as the nation at large, is that it has  been revealed  by recent events to be politically useless, whilst living in a world of pampered luxury and privilege, beyond the comprehension of the vast majority of ordinary people who help pay for it. For three years the country suffered government paralysis over Brexit, while the economy near flatlined and public services in every direction faltered and failed. In any other western democracy, the Head of State would have demanded of political leaders a better performance in government and parliament, or would have dissolved both, so that the people could choose  new ones. But here the Queen was constrained by ‘convention’ to the point of wringing her hands and watching.

The storm broke first with the scandal of Andrew and the paedophile. Then Meghan declared she had had enough. Harry was torn, but chose his own immediate family of wife and son, over the notion of Royalty and his place as the now distant 6th in line to the throne. His brother is the king in waiting. Harry is the redundant speare, because now William and Kate have produced three heirs.  The petty discussion over tiles and prefixes in a world of food banks and housing shortages, where ever more details of scores of footmen and lifestyle details of what is closer to a soap opera than a public need, has caused many to raise questions about whether time is up for this whole thing.

That is the damage. It is not about Harry and Meghan, who remain hugely popular among the rising generation on both sides of the Atlantic. It is about the rest of it. If it is to survive it has to be cut down to size and brought up to date.

UK Politics 2020: A Quickening Pace?

January 14th, 2020

There is evidence that after years of drift, grandstanding, confusion and kicking every can down a never ending road, things are beginning to happen. The Boris government looks confident and in control. This is important. Even if you oppose its policies. Everyone was worse off with a May style government which endlessly studied position papers, fudges and fiddles, then reached the wrong decision which it lacked the parliamentary support to implement. The result was not just the Brexit mess, but an ongoing crisis in every arm of the public services.

The clown aspect of Boris  has given way to a surprising focus and energy both at home and abroad. His record at the Foreign Office was not a happy one and his barnstorming leadership campaign raised serious questions about his grip of detail. But now in the only job he ever wanted and surrounded by some pretty aggressive  advisers, his government, bolstered by his election win and a decent majority, looks as if it is in charge. The handling of the Iran crisis has been a lot more sophisticated than one might have expected, the restoration of the Stormont government a big success, and the calm in the midst of the faux ‘Royal Crisis’ has been refreshing.

The moment so many dread, while an equal number are busting to celebrate, Brexit at the end of the month, is just days away. The other two main opposition parties, Labour and the Lib Dems, are both finding new leaders, so by mid- spring the political landscape will have changed out of all recognition to a year ago. However the honeymoon atmosphere will quickly dissipate as challenges for the future become here and now problems. How to cut taxes and increase spending, squaring  unsquareable circles to do with EU and US trade deals, delivering to the new Tory working class base, matching a hard Brexit to increasing economic output, are all must dos for Boris.

Fail on any and he is in trouble. Fail on all and he is finished.

Has Trump’s Gamble Paid Off?

January 11th, 2020

Well, maybe it has. There is no doubt the Iranian government was seriously discomforted by the blow of the assassination of, to multitudes and certainly the regime, a national hero. There is also no doubt that the unpredictability of the US Commander-in-Chief, Donald Trump, whose finger is on the buttons of the most powerful military in the history of the world, makes the Iranian leaders nervous.

They had to retaliate to satisfy the thirst for revenge of their followers, but they did so with  cautious precision, to make sure they damaged nothing useful of the Americans, nor caused any casualties, even issuing an apologetic warning of their missile strike in advance. Having fired off the salvo they stood down their forces to a lower level of readiness, as a further signal that they did not want a real war.

There was of course a lot of rhetoric, even about abandoning the nuclear deal altogether, but Trump countered by saying that they would NEVER be allowed their own nuclear bomb. They knew what that meant. Trump offered talks, but on very aggressive terms. However experience shows he gambles with talks too, so Iran might well be able to begin the search for a way out of the not very good place they are now in.

Then, sadly, we have the catastrophe of shooting down the Ukrainian Boeing. All those innocent lives lost through some kind of military mess up. And many of the dead are Iranians. Frantic denials that the crash was caused by a missile caved in to the admission that this is indeed the tragic case.  Iran owns this disaster and it has not helped its image. Trump will be feeling quite pleased with himself. The rest of us are left wondering why so many have to die for no real reason.

Royal Drama: Resigning From What?

January 10th, 2020

When the Queen referred in her Christmas message to the way being ‘quite bumpy’ she did not know the biggest pothole lay just ahead. The Sussex declaration of independence has caused a fuss and flurry entirely out of proportion to its effect on ordinary people. Of course Harry and Megan can go their own way if they want to. They are grown ups in a free country where choice is a cherished right. The argument is they have precedence and privilege, in exchange for which it is expected they enter into a life of luxurious servitude following protocols and practices which they abhor. So they want out. Let them go. They may well carve a far more useful and popular road and bring their joint countries, England and America, many more benefits, than if constrained by outdated rules and expectations.

Above all their desire to become financially independent indicates a much shrewder grip of modern priorities than many of their relatives.  A country which has record numbers of children in poverty, people sleeping on the streets, patients waiting on trolleys and families in work paid so little they rely on food banks to eat, is in no position to fund any other than a minimalist so called ‘Royal Family’ at the apex of the State. It is currently a family far too large, served by an army of hangers on and flunkies, stoked by writers, commentators and publications powering a completely superfluous media circus, designed to give value to nonsense. This is now a modern world. The Royal family should consist of no more than the monarch, the heir and the direct line heirs in waiting. The rest should make their own way in life. Most of them will be a good deal happier.