Which way is the Election going?
The latest poll to which I have access, You Gov March 24th (yesterday) sampled before the budget but after the latest scandals puts Labour at 36%,the Tories at 38% and the Lib Dems at 17%.. The UNS (uniform swing) projection is for Labour having one less seat than the Tories and the Lib Dems holding the balance of power with 48 seats, sufficient to give either a majority if it joined a coalition.
This all makes good reading for Labour, who seem uninjured by their recent prangs and trade union militancy; even helped by the latter, maybe people now prefer the unions to the bankers. It is very good news for the Lib Dems because it puts them on course for full participation in government for the first time in living memeory. However polling day is still weeks away, there have been no manifestos published and those historic T.V debates have yet to come.
This blog has repeatedly flagged key opportunities for the Tories to break through and is surprised that they have not done so. The Tory high command should be worried. No opposition party has been dealt so favouable a hand for decades. What is the problem? There could be many. I will offer two.
In the big moments since the WWII when the country went for real change, 1945 and 1979, there was a clear ideological challenge to the accepted way. With Attlee it was socialism and with Thatcher it was monetarism which later expanded to Thatcherism. In between the pendulum swung this way and that across the ideological divide of socialism versus a welfare state version of capitalismin which free enterprise operated beside state control of some industries and all utilities. When the country changed government there was a clear sense of moving from the one side to the other. Now the two main parties are esessentially two conservative parties, with a centrist perspective on all things and differences only in detail, some of which is too obscure for voters to bother with. Each has different roots, but both lean to the light, which is in the centre. The main difference is that Labour prefer to deliver though a big state and big government, the Tories say they like a smaller state and less government. To the voter there is not enough difference to risk a change. Unlike 1997 when the Tory Government was in crisis (although the country was sound) and change was necessary, this time the country is in crisis but the Government appears to many to have done rather well. Why change it?
It is the answer to this question of why ? which the Tory party has thus far failed to provide with any clarity. It has to do so to stand any chance of an outright win. Otherwise the best it can hope for is to govern on terms demanded by Nick and Vince.
I always was concerned in this subject and still am, thank you for posting.
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