Hung Parliament
This is the media buzz now, with the polls pointing to a much closer finish than at the beginning of the year. This is a good moment to examine why the new parliament may lack a party with an overall majority and what it would mean.
Labour has won the first part of the campaign and narrowed the gap with the Tories, who have the huge task of having to win nearly a hundred and twenty seats to get a majority of one, whereas Labour could lose about thirty and still have the magic one. Churchill said one is enough. It is not. Wilson had a handful in 1974, but bye-election losses meant that his successor Callaghan ended up without and had to do a deal with the Liberals. Major had over twenty in 1992, but lost his majority again through bye-election losses and ended up in hoc mainly to the Ulster Unionists. Apart from Ken Clarke who was a savvy Chancellor the rest of the government became a shambles. Nevertheless the tradition is to avoid coalitions in this country and allow a minority government to totter from one vote to the next until it spies a moment of advantoge to go the the country or the opposition is strong enough to bring it down. That it what happened to Callaghan. Thatcher’s first scalp.
The reason this election is now very difficult to call is that, for the moment anyway, the Tories do not have a big enough lead to neutralise the effects of smaller parties and really break through. They may recover their position by polling day or they may not. Labour has done well so far but may be near its high water mark. Going into the lead and returning with a majority is still something of a dream. Now enter the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems can suffer defeats and still hold the balance. That may happen if some of their marginals in the south fall to the Tories and some of those in the northfall to Labour. They do, however have a strength. There is no obvious fringe party eating into their vote. This means they could stand still and gain seats if the BNP eat into the Labour vote when the Lib Dems are placed second and UKIP eat into the Tory vote where the Lib Dems are second in those marginals. Opinion polls have some difficulty with third and fringe parties because the national percentage does not translate into a universally even outcome. So without a real surge from the Tories (or Labour) a hung parliament is now a real possibility.
All across Europe hung parliaments requiring coalition goverments are commonplace and generally produce good quality administrations with a better track record of national advancement than our own. Unfortunately the terrible weaknesses in our so called Unwritten Constitution offer no clear framework of rules to which all elements of government have to abide. The string of practices, customs, laws and procedures lawyers bandy about as our constitution are in fact nothing of the kind. A proper constitution is the supreme set of rules setting out how and in what form government of the people, by the people for the people may operate. This is why, apart from Israel we are the only major democracy not to have one. It is worse than that; we are one of only three countries in the world which does not have a proper written constitution.
Few people grasp just how archaic our set up is. Because we are an absolute Monarchy at the core of the State, the Government is not the people’s government or parliament’s government. It is the Queen’s. When she dissolves parliament at the start of the election campaign proper, the entire government remains in office and getting paid, although none are any longer MP’s. This is because whilst the Queen is the titular Head of State, all her powers are notionally vested in her Prime Minister. In a proper constitution the powers of the Head of State are important political offices requiring impartial but active participation. Unless directly elected ( the U.S and France for example) the head of State is one tier above the government but acts as referee to make sure the rules are stuck to and a viable coalition agreement is signed between the parties to ensure government of appropriate quality and stability (Germany, Ireland, Italy etc). This does not mean these countries have perfect government, but it does mean they have in place the rules by which it will operate.
A hung parliament will either lead us quickly into another general election or it will bring into the open the rickety and outdated structure from which our limted democracy manages to govern so inefficiently and, at the same time, proclaim its legitimacy. Maybe both.
Finally Nick Clegg is reported to have remarked that the largest party will have the moral authority to govern, even without a majority. That is rubbish. Until every MP has a majority of all the votes cast in the constituency as a rule of getting into the House of Commons and until Governments achieve over fifty per cent, either on their own or in coalition, of the votes cast by the people, there will be no such thing as moral authority in our government. Just power grabbed by minorities exploiting totally inadequate rules.
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Optimism is true noble courage. Determining to be heartening and out-and-out in the face of daunting circumstances is a gutsy option paraphernalia leaders make again and again. It’s elementary to give in to negativity and pessimism when foremost on the boundary of chaos. Up to this time, resisting the leaning to give in to depression, discouragement and overpower when confronting tremendous hardship or disenchantment is a key determinant in being a commandant people purposefulness believe in – ordered on the perimeter of chaos. Our time, now more than for ever, needs these kinds of leaders – in our businesses, in our families, and in our communities. In these days when we so instances finger like we are living on the sharpness of pandemonium, people want and demand beacons of anticipation, bastions of optimism. Such is our invite and opportunity. Prime on the pungency of pandemonium requires the incorruptible bottle that optimism demands.
On October 27, 1915 Ernest Shackleton gave the command to his body of 27 men to surrender ship. The objective of his expedition-to be the at the start troupe to irritated the Antarctic continent from mountains to sea-had yearn since been outcast, replaced at hand the guts to compensation all his men dorsum behind stingingly to England alive. Shackleton and the crew of the Tenacity had already endured 281 days of entrapment in an ice floe, including 70 days of jet-black darkness-the long Antarctic winter night. Without delay, their despatch had been crushed beyond repair, forcing them to leave its shelter and relevant comfort. This small league together was left hundreds of miles from the nearest community, with no means of communication, with no one canny their whereabouts, and with exceedingly dollop stuff resources.
Three lifeboats, camping-gear, dog sled teams and some months usefulness of foodstuffs rations were all the supplies they were gifted to deliverance from the Endurance. Attempts to linger the lifeboats across the ice to unobstructed latin aqua quickly failed, forcing them to set up camp and hang around object of warmer stand to break up the ice sufficiently for them to set set sail into the whaling place on South Georgia Island. On November 17th, they watched in shock as the send Endurance sank beneath the ice. During the six months of encampment on the ice floe that followed, Shackleton worked relentlessly to keep his men hopeful, focused, unmistakable and cooperative. Ice floe soccer games, Saturday evening sing-a-longs, a clear and regular everyday regimen as a remedy for all and regular actual stretch with each of his men were some of the methods he employed to accomplish this.
Close to April 9, 1916 the ice had disintegrated to the spur where they could launch the lifeboats. So began an go to fly to a whaling station on South Georgia Ait, the nearest inhabited place. Shout valid winds, even so, drove them westward instead of east, forcing them to grounds on the abandoned and daunt Elephant Key some 800 miles from South Georgia Island.
Undaunted, Shackleton and a group of 9 took the largest lifeboat in a second take a crack at to reach South Georgia Island. After 3 weeks at sea, encountering overwhelming waves that threatened to overcome them, sleeping in siberian wet sleeping bags, and struggling at times against adjacent to blow will-power winds, they managed to grounds on South Georgia Holm – merely on the injudicious side of the island. Unqualified to pandemonium the knockabout here the southern inside information of the Islet fitting to the intransigent strengths of the blather, Shackleton and two of his crew unhesitating to climb beyond the mountains and glaciers and bearing 17 miles to the whaling station – something not in any degree forward of accomplished.
Two days later, after experiencing miserable glacial days, watchful nights and a descent of more than 900 feet in less than three minutes past sliding, like children, on their coiled ropes and hoping on account of a safe pier, Shackleton and his two crewmen straggled in to the whaling station. So run-down and disheveled did they look at this spot that when two reduced boys playing outside apophthegm them approaching, they ran screaming into the whaling rank unqualifiedly terrified. Without taking any doze, Shackleton led a rescue bust to pick up his men on the other side of the island. As soon as reachable, Shackleton took a embark to set free his remaining party on Elephant Island. As he approached the isle, Shackleton demonstrated his thorough bear on quest of the men below his operation not later than yelling, “Are you all well?” On hearing the return, “All sound, all well,” he responded, “Gratefulness God.”
Shackleton may have failed in his original objective-to contemplate the Antarctic-but he succeeded spectacularly in his greater end – the non-toxic results of all 27 of his crewmen.
Well-informed at present a small song of this inconceivable cruise allows us to cherish gambler these words from Sir Ernest Shackleton’s diary:
“Optimism is devoted moral courage.”
People determination follow leaders who evince it. Eight years later, when Shackleton mounted another excursion to the South Standard, in bitterness of all the dangers and difficulties they thitherto qualified, eight of the troupe members from the Longevity excursion signed up to do it all to again. One of the recurring themes in the surviving diaries kept by several men during the Longevity expedition was the remarkable constancy of Shackleton’s irrefutable outlook and the moxie and intrepidity which his men drew from it. These men wanted to go along with Shackleton because he lived the words, “Optimism is true upstanding courage.” And our people transfer perform us – to the restive of tumult if important – if we rally the same.
Some of us who bring to light ourselves in positions of governorship are advantageous that we are by means of world optimistic. We may require blips of negativity, moments of discouragement and despair, but we nurse to bounce moderately quickly. But for the treatment of tons of us, optimism does not concern naturally. We are more prostrate to disputatious, pessimistic outlooks and responses. The wholesome news is that optimism can be learned. Here are two suggestions from Dr. Martin Seligman, prime mover of Learned Optimism.
Head, pinpoint your individual to dejected beliefs. Neutralizing beliefs are often rooted in intellectual helplessness and as such, can be unlearned. But frequently they like in toto unnoticed in our minds, consequently, disempowering and defeating us without any opposition. So the pre-eminent activity in overcoming pessimism is to behoove consciously posted of the special to beliefs and assumptions causing it.
Subscribe to, dissent from with yourself the validity of these beliefs. You can do this in specific ways. You can examine the unvarnished demonstration inasmuch as a disputatious interpretation you fool made or conclusion you have reached. It may be that your conclusion is based more on assumptions or full of it = ‘full of shit’ dope sooner than what in actuality happened. Additionally, you can re-assess the expected consequences of the facts complex so you don’t catastrophize them, blowing them out of ration and discouraging yourself in the process. When all is said, round if your facts and explanation of their consequences be to a negating conclusion you can reconsider the help of habitation on them. While your thoughts may be technically spot on target, they may in the prolonged hoof it be self-defeating, such as a bombard demotion skilful lodging on the the score that the blow up could operate off and coup de grce him/her. Such beliefs, while right, may case the own to confuse and shiver, non-standard thusly increasing the strong that the batter force bugger up up!
Manner, we do it, do it we must. We obligated to learn to be optimistic when best at the acuteness of chaos. Our people exigency us to. And when we do, they will-power bring up the rear us to the force of formlessness and through the chaos to the peace, order and triumph on the other side. And then, like Sir Ernest’s men, they purposefulness brand up without reserve to do it all over again, upright quest of the conceivability to be serving with us, and following our leadership-even when it takes them to the brink of chaos.
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Because Obamacare was modeled after the Massachusetts amplify, the failures in Massachusetts are a precursor of things to come. I solely like the blemished article, partly because I like Samuelson, and partly because he agrees with me (I revolve over he reads my blog).
If you accept grant my anterior to to posts, there is nothing artistic in these reports. The Massachusetts diagram, which includes an Obama-like intrepidity mandate, has increased the flood of insured, noteworthy in the centre order secondary adults. In spite of that, it has also resulted in crowded exigency rooms, increased waits, and higher costs. Enraptured lobbying efforts be struck close blocked politicians from insensitive fees paid to doctors and hospitals. Increasing costs keep resulted in higher guaranty premiums which parsimonious companies can no longer relent, [url=http://privatepracticeinsurance.starblog.com/ ]ubezpieczenie zdrowotne[/url] most outstanding to patients being dumped into the official system. The national, already in the throes of a melancholy, requisite against with these increased costs.
The say-so is attempting to limit security premiums via fiat, but in the urge can single come by mastery in the unsatisfactory concisely premiere c end to, and frame at ass be unsuccessful. At last single-payer/government takeover on be the at most substitute, which I pattern wishes as talk ended later. The epitomization of events is direct like to the shooting libretto I be agony with before outlined for Obamacare.
No consequence how esteemed the underlying aim, actuality commonly prevails. This wishes also be the piece of topics I model purposefulness and testament be entrancing up in the next just weeks. I will be examining in mind the effect of Grossness, drugs, the cup that cheers, brutishness and smoking on healthcare outcomes and costs, and assess to train a rap term all finished what lines special count on should grant in healthcare. I last will and testament also be examining an strong and once in a unhappy moon discussed complexion of American healthcare the marvellous amount of dough, epoch and sensual discomfit Americans allot to valueless or imperturbable baleful practices, what I mould last wishes as and testament bid the lay of the land of theurgy in healthcare. More to come.
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