Labour, Milliband and Winning

The Labour Party is ahead in the polls but not by a large margin. The margin is small enough to be eaten away during the election campaign. The recovery is gaining momentum. This is awkward for the party which said the Coalition was on the wrong course. It is true that the recovery is fuelled by another housing bubble, is not well balanced and is not felt by ordinary people, whose incomes are falling in real terms. It is also a recovery which cannot last and may well end in tears. Yet the tide appears turning towards the Tories, when it should be running more strongly to Labour.

It is not because Milliband is geeky, though he is. It is not because Balls lacks the credibility to become the next Chancellor, though he does. It is not because Labour has no good new ideas, they have a few worth looking at. The problem is they have no Big Idea. Nor do they have a narrative in which people can believe and by which they can become inspired.

It is simple. With a Big Idea and a Narrative to Inspire, Labour could be certain of victory, whoever is leader. Without either they can expect, at best, not to win outright and, at worst, to loose altogether. Whoever is leader.

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