Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

While shock and sympathy for the victims and their families of the terrible destruction of MH17 is worldwide and universal, the discovery of what actually happened is in danger of being lost in a confrontation of conflicting accusations.

Yesterday morning I posted my own analysis of the most likely chain of events in the tragedy, which was subsequently borne out by similar conclusions from Downing Street and the White House, to the effect that a separatist missile had been fired, mistaking the airliner for a Ukrainian transport. The performance of the pro Russian militia restricting access and carrying off evidence reinforces this conclusion. While I relied on news feeds, social media and eye witness interviews, Washington and London would be working from sophisticated communication and satellite intelligence gathering. Even so, doubts remain, because of difficulties which are bound to arise from disinformation, false intelligence and opposing forces with identical weapons systems.

That this terrible event is a diplomatic and public relations disaster for Moscow and the separatists cannot be denied.It is made worse by initial uncertainty on the Russian side about how to react and reports of drunken militia hindering inspectors. Nevertheless Russia has not disguised its shock and sympathy and large numbers of local people from miners to emergency teams have worked hard to gather bodies and body parts spread over miles of countryside; a horrific task stoically performed, of which the memory will never fade.

Yet there is not universal confidence that all is as it seems. Distrust of the Kiev government is widespread. From the very beginning it has been trying to prod NATO into some kind of military response to settle quarrels largely of its own making. Even if NATO was persuaded at some point, the public in the West would not be, and it is therefore not an option. It is important to say in clear and powerful tones to the Kiev government that Ukraine was an independent country under no threat from anybody, which since it broke from the disintegrating Soviet Union has made a complete mess of its governance and failed utterly in its primary responsibility to unite its people. Nobody else is willing to be dragged into their quagmire although financial and diplomatic help will be given to enable a fresh start.

If it turns out that Kiev was involved in any way in the events which ended in the deaths of nearly three hundred innocent travellers, they should know they will be abandoned  to whatever fate destiny has in store and Western support will be entirely withdrawn. Russia has now mounted an alternative narrative for the shooting down, which demands answers to a number of valid questions about Kiev forces in the region and the routing of the plane in such a dangerous airspace.

It is absolutely critical for its continuing credibility that Kiev answers these convincingly. Bluster and counter accusations will not work. Either it has clean hands or it has something to hide.

This entry was posted on Saturday, July 19th, 2014 at 2:22 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.