Tony Blair, evidently a devout Christian, has an ideology which is curiously old fashioned. He believes that he is a goody, those who see things differently are baddies and all can be put right if you intervene militarily and impose an outcome by force. Democracy will take over, freedom will flower and milk and honey will flow. His friend George W Bush thought the same things, so they were able to put their ideas into practice and others followed in their footsteps. We know the names of these Utopian dreams; Afghanistan and Iraq, misreading the Arab Spring, Libya and as a direct consequence of Sunni insurgents believing the West would intervene to back them as it did in Libya, Syria. Every one of these countries is now in chaos.
Today’s world of instant communication and social media brings individuals together to form a critical mass in a way unimagined in the past. This makes insurgencies easy to organize and the task of formal militaries in confronting them very difficult without resorting to sledgehammer blows. These create more insurgents bent on revenge. Thus it is that whereas war with all its destruction and death wears out a military machine, it actually builds up and breathes life into an insurgency. It is therefore the case that once armed conflict is started, it proves almost impossible to stop it. The instruments of surrender, peace treaties, security pacts and so forth, once dominant as roadways to settlement, are now little better than worthless paper. Whatever their words the people ignore them.
It is not clear to this Blog how on earth it is ever going to be possible to bring order and peace to the Middle East, but if it ever happens it will be because the people who live there have finally had enough. It will not be because of military intervention, from whatever worthy source and with whatever blessings from Blair the enterprise is endowed.
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