Time To Take Stock

So far the Russian occupation of Crimea has been achieved without loss of life, or indeed without a drop of blood being spilled. This could only happen though the enthusiastic welcome of the majority of the population who see themselves as actually or ethically Russian. It is therefore not realistic to make out that this is a full scale invasion, but it is certainly an intrusion.

The West has been seriously caught out not because of Russia’s actions but its own. The epicentre of the crisis is the manner in which the new government came to power. Even after a deal had been agreed and signed to meet almost all the demands of the protesters, the far right elements refused to accept it, provoked more violence and eventually caused the legitimately and democratically elected president to flee. Yes, he was unpopular and yes, he may have been corrupt, but in a democracy there are processes to deal with such situations and the manner of his ousting, the appointment of a new government with a significant far right component and its subsequent enactment of its idiotic language law, together flew in the face of everything the West alleges that it stands for.

At this point the West should have drawn back and held urgent talks with Russia on measures which could jointly be taken to restore order and ward off bankruptcy. Instead it recognised the new government. What followed was inevitable. The ethnic Russians in the east became acutely alarmed and called for help. Russia responded with surprising deftness, as the lack of bloodshed thus far confirms, but the diplomatic balloon went up. Within the posturing and noise there is something of a hidden split between Europe and the US.

In the former there is a growing recognition that Russia and Europe are interdependent economically and the hatred of Russia which permeates the neo-con wing of American politics, is absent in Europe. Indeed privately European diplomats admit that Russia has shown itself to be the more nuanced and skilful player in recent times. America appears the more ideological and heavy handed.

Germany urges dialogue and believes it will be a serious mistake, which will be counterproductive all round and especially to the Ukrainian people of all persuasions, to paint Russia into a corner and isolate her. Germany is right. What happens next depends not on President Putin, but on the tensions between Washington, Brussels and Berlin and how these resolve into a common position.

There will be no resolution until Russia is satisfied as to the legitimacy and intentions of the Government in Kiev. This mob appointed mish-mash with its alarming neo Fascist component, has already probably lost the Crimea by its early efforts. It will now be hard pressed to hold on to the eastern provinces. Its moderate elements have shown recent restraint and know that if they do anything rash they will be political toast.

Like all crises this one has now detached from its genesis and developed a momentum of its own. All sided must now wind it down. They must stop posturing and start talking. Syria is the example of what happens if they don’t.

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