It is becoming clear that the Crimea is lost as an integral part of the Ukrainian state and it is unlikely that Kiev will ever be able to satisfy the anxieties both of its ethnic Russian population and Russia itself to cause it to return. What is now in the balance is whether the eastern provinces of Ukraine will go the same way.
The West is furious at the way things turned out, but mostly it only has itself to blame, as previous blog posts have set out. What is now required is a realistic approach to resolve issues which have festered since Ukraine became nominally independent after the fall of the Soviet Union. The poor quality of its governance is a key factor in its present predicament.
The West knows that it has no military options short of world war and it is beginning to focus on bringing economic and diplomatic pressure upon the Russians sufficient to cause them to count the cost of going too far in what has so far been a remarkably seamless and well executed military advance. Above all the West must now talk to Russia, recognise its anxieties and fears and find some way to meet these as well as the aspirations of the west leaning population loyal to Kiev. At all costs it must detach itself from the far right activists in the Kiev political firmament who admire the Nazis.
Both Russia and the West have to stand tall and recognise that in the modern world they need each other. The plunge of the value of shares on the Russian stock market and the fall in the rouble will remind the Kremlin that it no longer rules over a command economy separated from the global market. America must rein it its neo conservative zealots who have a visceral hatred of Russia and all things Russian and NATO needs to remember that if Russia turns off the gas, half Europe’s lights go out.
Both sides need to remind themselves that unless they work together there can be no resolution of the suffering in Syria or the problem of Iran’s nuclear programme. Russia has as much to fear from jihadists and ethnic violence as any country in the West. It would be helpful too if American rhetoric was a little less strident and showed a better grasp of the issues. Over the last forty eight hours both Kerry and Obama have sounded like hypocrites to many who do not love them as well as to many others who do.