As this Blog has already remarked, it looks as if the Yes campaign of Alex Salmond is now without all of its wheels.
England has ruled out a currency union and the President of the EU commission pointed up serious problems about joining Europe with any kind of a smooth passage, if at all. The response has been bluster about the pipe dream that an independent Scotland will be so sexy that everybody will cave in and agree to everything she wants. This is patently absurd.
Moreover if a currency union with the UK and membership of the EU are central to Scotland’s best interests as well as those of the UK and EU, why campaign to leave both by becoming independent? The whole argument is becoming incoherent. To be a member of either or both as a separate country will not only require a major surrender of sovereignty to London but also to Brussels, which has to do the bidding of Berlin. Moreover neither is on offer.
The vote when it comes will turn on the question of economic risk v advantage. At the moment the Yes campaign is offering uncertainty, confusion and potential chaos. Were Salmond (this is all Salmond- without him the Yes campaign and the whole independence project would collapse overnight) to present to a plucky nation with its own history, culture, heritage, legal and education systems, a genuine independence offer which included a currency, central bank, foreign policy and a Treasury with an appropriate fiscal and economic policy, it may well prove an offer worth taking. It would at least be a genuine offer, clear and unambiguous, which would have the potential in due time to join this and become part of that.
Instead the proposal is essentially to leave the sterling zone in which the Scots have over fifty seats in the parliament which controls it, and leave Europe in which it has a lot of clout (the last two Prime Ministers of the UK were Scots and the current one is Scottish pretending to be English), then to rejoin both, nominally independent, but under the direction of forces of vastly greater weight in which it has no say at all.
How has the project ended up in a mess bordering on farce? Well, if you cast back to the time when the referendum was being mooted, it was the Salmond plan to offer a choice; full independence or what was called devo max. This was greater devolvement of powers to Edinburgh, but remaining in the Union. Alex Salmond was certain he could get a majority for devo max, but far from sure he could for full blown independence, which frightens even him.
So when only one question was allowed, stay or go, Salmond tried to come up with a compromise. Go, but keep the Queen, the pound and the EU. The Queen is already Queen of Scotland anyway, so her future was not up for discussion and the other two have said firmly no or likely no. So who is going to vote for that?
The truth is clear. Even Salmond realises that it is better to stay.
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