According to polls the latest group to get fed up with Europe are the Europeans. More precisely all the spendthrift economies of the south, to whose cause the ill-starred French President is allying himself as his disillusioned voters drag him further from Germany. It is his own fault. He made idiotic promises in his election campaign, which were bound to lead to disappointment. Disappointed voters are angry voters likely to turn their backs, so for Hollande it is urgent that he find something to please them. Cozying up to the borrow and spend brigade might do this.
Curiously it may also be good for Cameron, who has made a clever ally of Angela Merkel. She was born and brought up in the communist east and prizes freedom higher than even the Euro. She sees in Britain a bastion of freedom and a powerful ally in her quest for fiscal discipline, which is causing her such trouble in the happy go lucky countries to the south.
Germany wants to keep Britain in Europe. France is more than happy for Britain to leave. Without Britain in Europe Germany will be exposed to the charge of hegemony over the other members. Britain inside as Germany’s ally would look a lot better. The outcome for the borrow and spenders would be the same. But Germany and Britain together would be an irresistible force. This is why Merkel may be on Cameron’s side in the upcoming re-negotiation of Britain’s deal in Europe. Angela may fix a deal for Dave that is much more substantial than expected. That would put Britain’s far right, which includes most Tory activists, on the back foot.
By 2018 we may be remarking on how the nationalist surge petered out, with Scotland still in the Union and the United Kingdom still in Europe. It is not impossible that we may instead be asking how it was that England found itself out of Europe, its Union with Scotland dissolved and its Empire long gone. Germans may be remarking that while Germany reunited, the seemingly impregnable Great Britain finally broke up.
The English need to think carefully. They could, within just a few years, be back where they started out in Tudor times.
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