Following the local election success of UKIP the Tory party is in some confusion, while the media speculates on whether Nigel Farage is a credible alternative Prime minister. Mr. Farage, evidently a modest man, with exceptional communication skills and the ability to connect with disgruntled voters, says he is not ambitious for the top job. Of course. Indeed. Quite so.
However, the real story is Labour’s failure. They were expected to win at least 300 seats, based on swing factors and polling which consistently show the party well ahead, which do not give special weight to UKIP. If you factor in UKIP, Labour should win many more, because so many more votes were going from the Tories to Nigel Farage’s party than from Labour. In the end Miliband’s lot won 295, so we can assume without UKIP it would have been many fewer.
The reason for this is the Labour’s determination not to disclose its own policies too soon before the general election, because traditionally it is bad politics to do so. The problem is voters no longer do political tradition. They do not do politicians either and they barely do politics. Above all they do not do people who criticise but have no plan of their own. Thus Farage, with clear cut policies of simplistic one liners does well; Europe? Get out. Immigration? Stop it. Economy? Cut taxes.
Labour are vague on all these things to some extent, but are worst on the economy, where there is confusion and lack of grasp. Ed Milliband was mauled on the World at One when he tried to explain how Labour would cut VAT but not increase borrowing. Harriet Harman is reported to have admitted somewhere else that borrowing under Labour would rise. Ed Balls has earned points by being right about the potential failure of Osborne’s plan, but lost all of them and has gone into deficit because his own plan has no credibility either.
This is the main problem for Labour. The country remains in the grip of an economic crisis. The main opposition is all over the shop over what to do about it. Ed Miliband, whose stature has risen significantly in the last twelve months on the back of some outstanding parliamentary performances, has to grasp this nettle, not in 2015, but now. There does not have to be a fully fledged policy but there has to be a framework. Borrowing more till it all comes good is unsaleable.
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