Cameron and the EU: A Poisoned Chalice?

Cameron’s much delayed, over spun and partially leaked speech on Britain and the EU has been delayed as the nation waits in anxiety for bad, perhaps very bad, news from Algeria. Although this is right and proper, the unavoidable postponement can only feed mounting uncertainty about the future direction of the UK economy.

It would be a fair summary to say that most people see the benefits of Britain’s EU membership; some businessmen find European regulations irksome; sections of the media are hysterical in their opposition to an institution or grouping which has brought the longest period of European peace in history; and, and this is where Cameron comes in, the Tory party is racked with disagreement and split from top to bottom.

At this time, when the re-organisation of the Euro area is at last getting under way to create an effective means of running the single currency, without which there will be no economic recovery in the EU and when the UK economy remains bumping along the bottom, no rational Prime Minister, who had control of his destiny, would set out to make a speech about something which has not happened, may never happen and if it does with what effect cannot yet be foretold. Sadly Cameron’s destiny is with the Tory party and although he is the leader he has lost effective control. Thus the big speech.

Clearly there will have to be some treaty changes if the expected move towards a more federal and less democratic government structure is put together by those members of the euro who wish to remain in it, which may not be all of them. Nobody knows for sure if this will happen, nor for certain if the euro will survive and if so in exactly what form. It is known that change is coming and that such change must affect the nature of the relationship of non euro members to the EU as well as the relationship of the euro members. So far missing are the framework, the objectives, the structures, the mandate and the intended outcome.  There is no more point in making a speech about so much uncertainty than there is in making one about colonising the moon.

European leaders, Washington, the CBI and myriad others, whose lives revolve in the reality outside the Tory party, are dismayed by the timing and sentiment of what our prime minister is trying so unsuccessfully to get off his chest. However none of these pose the dire threat of an unforeseen outcome. This is what looms in the mist ahead.

If Cameron stirs up uncertainty about whether Britain may leave Europe, the hand of Alex Salmond in the independence referendum for Scotland will be hugely strengthened. It then becomes entirely possible, even likely, that Scots will vote for independence in order to gain their own membership of the EU as England leaves.

No longer will it be Great Britain. Instead Little England. Even Andy Murray will be gone.