The markets thought so, at least for a while. The problems of the euro are now so complex that there is no single decision which will fix the whole thing, but the decision of the ECB to print unlimited money to buy the bonds of effectively bust countries is at last a recognition that the ECB is in charge. No currency can function without a fully functioning central bank, so that problem is now fixed. It is also true that no central bank can function without a government and that problem is not. To introduce some coherence into a situation so confused, we can divide the crisis into three segments; financial, political and economic. The financial element now has coherence, but the political and economic segments do not.
The complete failure of the euro countries to establish a proper political structure sourced in democracy has allowed Germany to take control by default. It is still in charge. It did not want the ECB to print money, but wanted even less to use its own cash. It agreed, provided all the strict conditions applied to bail out deals, applied also to countries taking advantage of bond purchases. Even then there has been a good deal of dismay in Germany and Merkel no longer has any political manoeuvre space left. In addition the German Constitutional Court is shortly to rule on what legally Germany can agree to. This could throw another spanner into the already clogged up works. At the heart of the German anguish lies its determination to preserve the euro as a hard currency modelled on the Deutschmark and not allow it to become a soft currency, of which the lire and drachma are their nightmare images. Whether the tottering economies of the debtor countries can be reformed, within their domestic political consensus, to meet German standards has been, and remains, a significant area of uncertainty.
This leads to the third segment. Euroland’s economy. All these issues and arguments have paralysed the European economy, including EU members not in the euro, to the point of stagnation and contraction. The ECB’s willingness to print money will not, on its own, solve this. There is a lot more still to be done. Nevertheless last week’s decision was, after a lot of dust kicking, the first firm step in the right direction.
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