Europe is preoccupied with the dominance of Germany and the fate of Greece. Britain should be preoccupied with the American Presidential election. It is not. It should be, because what happens in the US in November will have far more impact on the island nation than anything which may, and anything might, happen to Greece and the Euro.
This is not an election about foreign affairs. Neither side is spoiling for new war. Do do so would guarantee electoral disaster. It is an election about, and only about, the economy and within that envelope it is about, and only about, growth. America currently has growth, but not enough of it. In the UK there is none. In America there has been vast spending but little cutting. In the UK there has been vast cutting and little spending. The growth in America is offset by the borrowing to get it. The cutting in the UK has been offset by rising costs of negative growth. There is not a lot between the economics of Obama and Ed Balls. Nor is there much difference in the ideological views of money between Osborne and the new darling of the Republican campaign, VP nominee Paul Ryan.
The race is at present too close to call with polls showing the two parties neck and neck, though with the Democrats well ahead with women voters. Essentially Obama’s economic policy is European style left of centre and the Romney/Ryan ticket is American Dream (or Confederate) small government, low taxes, big cuts. Obama says government gives value and makes a difference. The Republicans, especially the Tea Party, say government costs big and gets in the way.
The United States stands polarised and evenly divided, locked into its opposing visions of what America is and should be, save for a few hundred thousand swing voters in a handful of states. It is here that the die will be cast. If the economy continues to stutter, Obama will go down like Bush Senior and Jimmy Carter to a single term. If the economy begins to show real signs of recovery, the campaign will focus on the ultra conservative, anti-abortion, creationist activists who have staked ownership to the party first led by Abraham Lincoln and the Republicans will go down to a big defeat.
Either way the outcome will have far more impact on Britain and its economy, than anything happening in Athens or Berlin. Ultimately Britain is much more a part of America, than it ever has been, or will be, of Europe.
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