Nobody saw the Bradford election sensation coming.
Things have been going so badly for the government in a mayhem of budget disasters, pasty challenges, funding scandals, jerry cans and petrol queues, that many have been asking whether the Tory party can recover.
For it is the Tory party which is in trouble. Suddenly it has fallen from its perch as the party of One Nation, to scratch in the dust as a party of out of touch toffs. This is the kind of political mishap, or string of mishaps, which create an aura which does not go away. Profumo, Heath’s U Turn, the Winter of Discontent, Sleaze were all critical factors which, when added to other issues of policy, brought the government down at the next election.
All of this current collapse of government authority is connected to the Tory half of the coalition. It began with Coulson, which was not a one off, but turns out to be part of a pattern of poor judgements of public opinion on the matter of political integrity and ministerial competence. Labour, meanwhile, has been making hay in its own sunshine, advancing its lead in the polls, with Milliband, Balls and Cooper at last appearing for the first time on message and incisive.
Few voters were aware that there was a bye-election in Bradford. Nobody expected a Labour defeat. The nation suddenly wakes up to the astonishing news that Respect has not just beaten Labour, but by a landslide.
For Milliband and Co this is a disaster, as it throws once more into question the ability of Milliband himself to connect with the mass of ordinary voters suffering from the economic hard times. It is, of course, a freak result, but it does contain a serious message. Labour’s centre of gravity has, in the last twenty years shifted from the grimy back streets of the poor, in towns like Bradford across the land, to trendy Islington in the heart of the new money of the South East. It has taken what used to be called the working class vote, for granted. It must reconnect with these roots, because without those votes it cannot win a general election.
The Tories meanwhile have been rescued from their own debacle by George Galloway, itself a significant humiliation for them. We now have to watch the political playing field carefully to see how and if the two main parties score their way out of trouble. Both suffer from a lack of public trust and neither has among its leadership anybody who stands out among the others. Unlike Mr. Galloway, whatever your view of his opinions.
Hi, Neat post. There’s a problem along with your web site in web explorer, would test this… IE still is the market leader and a large component of people will omit your excellent writing because of this problem.