Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

As the politicians return from, sometimes interrupted, holidays and Parliament reassembles, it is worth looking at the general dynamic of the Westminster Village.

Before the break it was wall to wall Murdoch, then the riots. Now it will be Libya, eduction, health and the banks. Labour, comfortably in the lead on all the polls before, is still in the lead but only just. Some polls put them neck and neck with the Tories. Cameron looks a good deal stronger, having done well in the riots and over Libya, which is turning out better than feared. Milliband looks weaker. He has good moments and often says things that strike a chord with the majority, but nobody, yes nobody, can imagine him as prime minister. Fortunately there are none in his shadow cabinet who looks even vaguely like a national leader, so for the moment he is safe. 

Clegg pops up here and there, but lacks an issue with which people identify, or identify him with. His great project was constitutional reform. The car crash of the AV Yes vote has left him still in the ditch.

Vince, on the other hand, having been vindicated by the fall of the Murdochs from his indiscretions with fake girlie constituents, is again on the up. He thinks we should act NOW on the banks. Everybody in the country except Osborne and Cameron (and the bankers) agrees with him. He knows that the banker’s lobby is talking absolute balderdash. He points out we need sound banks above everything upon which to build a sound economy. An over leant country cannot renew itself by more borrowing, so now is the best time for the banks to come up with the cash to put their houses in order. When the report of the IBC is formally published in a few days, you can be sure to see Vince everywhere on the media.

The dangers ahead for the government are that while it is commendably firm on cutting, it is fumbling about stimulating growth in a way which does not involve more borrowing. If it compromises too much on its NHS reforms they will not work, then everyone will be angry. If the free schools have teething problems the opposition will have an easy ride. If Libya suddenly goes wrong, which now looks unlikely, this could dent Cameron. If Coulson suddenly proves Cameron was told everything from the very beginning, this would be curtains for the PM, but this looks very unlikely. Generally speaking, when all is taken into account, the Tories have the wind in their sails and the Lib Dems, with the banks, have a populist cause to champion.

Now for Labour. Here things do not look good. Balls is increasingly seen as not up to the job of shadow chancellor with his simplistic view of economics. Darling’s book is damaging and will be very damaging to Brown allies still in government. Ed Milliband is getting weaker. The more we get to learn  about Labour in office, the less good it looks. Rendition to Gaddafi for torture, of terror suspects on its watch, could be a calamity. So might the publication of the Chilcot Enquiry.

Events, we are always told in politics, are the key. Who can tell what is coming down the track? Those with their ear to the line tell me that financial crisis in the Euro-zone and in the US maybe the issues for the autumn which will eclipse the others. This may help Labour more than the government, if it happens. It will happen sooner or later.

This entry was posted on Monday, September 5th, 2011 at 12:41 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.