From the very beginning the chances of Greece getting through without a default of some kind were very slim. They are now very slim indeed. The reason is not so much financial; the figures were a calamity at the start. It is political. The simple truth is that populations will put up with just so much, but when the sacrifices, cuts and social deprivations reach a certain point, consensus crashes, strikes and protests abound, political cohesion is replaced by opportunism, government authority weakens and nobody knows what is coming next.
Greece is in this situation because it is the Euro. The Euro is in this situation because it has no central government, only a Central Bank. The Bank’s policy is now at odds with its largest economy, Germany. All around Europe and within Greece itself, there are competing priorities and arguments about what do do. If some loan is cobbled together to stop a quick default, nobody, literally nobody, thinks that will stop a default later. The worry is contageon. Will the chaos spread? The advent of the universal, multinational bank greatly increases the risk.
How this will end is not yet clear. A storm is brewing and it is time to prepare. Osborne has done well thus far, though by shuffling around with a commission which has come up with banking reforms much on the lines all but the bankers themselves have been proposing since the crash ( including this blog and 2010 A Blueprint For Change), he may have wasted valuable time to secure our vulnerable U.K. banks. Let us hope his decision now to do so, will not be too late.
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