Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

There is now real opportunity to move forward in the Middle East. This is not because some breakthrough in negotiations has occurred or is in prospect. It is because the established order and balance, which has stood unchanged for decades and which Israel has relied upon to fashion its policy, is now falling away in the phenomenon dubbed the Arab Spring. In reality only in Egypt and Tunisia has something tangible happened and even here we do not quite know what is coming. But nevertheless whether in the Arab kingdoms or dictatorships the people are stirring, the regimes look threatened and in the modern electronic world, brutal crackdowns will produce no lasting respite from the onward march of liberation.

Two things then flow. Israel can no longer be sure of the attitude of its neighbours. It is not quite clear who may be friend and who may be foe. Will Egypt, with a democratic government be more or less tolerant of Israeli obduracy than under Mubarak? If the Assad regime crumbles, what comes after? Israelis are not fools. They know they are constantly provoked and this brings them sympathy. They know also that at times they have been brutal in their response and have behaved badly in many other ways. In a different climate, could they go on like this?

The second thing to flow concerns their ally the US. In order to support the ill-defined opportunities of the Arab spring, the White House and State Department have had to fashion a new approach which, unlike the old Middle East policy which was fixed and predictable, will in future have to be responsive and fluid. Whatever the policy, US influence is now significantly reduced across the region, but without the change now unfolding, its influence would shrink much lower. The impact on Israel of this is seismic. It means that instead of the Jewish lobby in Washington counting for everything and securing all for Israel no matter what, it will count for less and secure little.

This may be the Arab Spring. It is also the autumn of Israeli defiance. From now on, to survive, Israel has to negotiate in a spirit of give and take. The days of waving the Old testament and taking whatever, are over. That is the message from President Obama. That is why he has said talks start at the pre 1967 borders. It is time to go back to the beginning, for it is here that the key will be found to open the door leading to the end. Israel needs to understand that. If it does it will survive and prosper. If it sticks to its old ways, its future becomes very uncertain.

This entry was posted on Friday, May 20th, 2011 at 10:56 am and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.