Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The media hardly reports on this war any more. As stalemates go the conflict is stale to the point of putrefaction. News breaks today of a well planned mass breakout from the highest security Kandaha prison. Actually the escape tunnel was dug from outside in, so it can be classed as a rescue by the Taliban of nearly five hundred of their people, including many commanders. This is a serious setback to those still in the dreamland of handing over security to the corrupt and inept Afghan Government and coming home in triumph from a pacified, democratised and stable Afghanistan. This was never going to happen.

There is now a choice. Either negotiate with the Taliban to get a compromise settlement which they are willing to back, at least in the interim. Some kind of power sharing government, Iraq style, may be possible, though I suspect may not last for ever. The other is to step up military operations and training of Afghan Government forces, so that on the face of it, it is possible to hand over security to the Khazi government and for all foreign troops to withdraw. That is what will most likely happen.

What will then follow, this can be predicted with confidence, is a civil war which the Taliban will win, with most of the so called security forces swithching sides to join them. We shall then be back to square one, with all the years of effort, expenditure and sacrifice of lives entirely wasted. Maybe lessons will have been learned in the West. Then again, maybe not.

This entry was posted on Monday, April 25th, 2011 at 10:14 am and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.