It is now clear that the problems so many feared are now taking effect. There was no exit strategy, so no clear military objective. Protecting civilians in a civil war is a concept incapable of impartial application. UNSCR 1973 was a political declaration, requiring military action, with a humanitarian objective.
A No Fly zone by itself was insufficient to protect against the Gaddaffi onslaught on the Rebels. So ‘any means necessary’ were permitted to be employed. This turned out to be targeting Gaddafi forces advancing out in the open. That has caused them to change tactics and has prevented them from advancing on the Rebel stronghold of Benghazi. It has not stopped them repelling the Rebels whenever they advance west, nor has it halted the siege of Misurata. There is a military stalemate on the ground. Attempts at a ceasefire stall at the refusal of the Gaddafi family to go.
Meanwhile America withdraws to a ‘supporting’ role. Other NATO members are reluctant to commit forces. Britain and France do not have enough hardware engaged to do the job on their own either because it does not exist, or because politically they fear a backlash at home or bits of both. There are only two ways out. Two Libyas or Gaddafi goes. Neither offers certainty that the civil war would end or would not erupt again after a short peace, but there are no other realistic outcomes.
The time for wishful thinking is well and truly over. There are now few options. One is for the UN to pass a new resolution authorising NATO to up its game to regime change, which 1973 prohibits; this will require ground troops. That rules out both Britain and the US. It is politically impossible and would in any event not be passed in the Security Council.
Another option is for NATO step up the tempo of the current profile of activity. This may help the Rebels but it will not prove decisive. They do not have the military capacity to make new gains or if they do, to hold them. This is why there is no unanimity in NATO for this. More than likely there will be words that have a ring to them, whilst the military effort remains at half cock. The stalemate will then be confirmed three ways: between the fighting Libyans and NATO’s ability to halt the fighting in the Rebels’ favour.
That leaves only two options. To muddle on with a protracted military effort with no end in sight; that would be the goodnight kiss for both Cameron and Sarkozy. The other is to do a deal with the Gaddafi family and their key supporters, which will see them retired rich and comfortable and free from prosecution in the holiday idyl of their choice. This would be a political humiliation for Britain and France, more especially because from the very beginning it has been the only realistic option to save civilian lives. Things may then turn out better than hoped, maybe with the help of an Arab peacekeeping force, while Libya settles down. Remember Suez? Remember Eden?
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