Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

This blog has always had misgivings about this and now repeats an important principle of statecraft. Never intervene in a civil war. The reasons for this are many. Wars begun never end as expected. If a people take to violence upon each other whatever the apparent suffering, it may well get worse if others join in, however good their intentions. Intervention by third parties provides a rallying cry for oppressors. In the end the best way to help is with humanitarian aid, mediation and reconstruction.

America knew this. It suffered one of the most savage civil wars in history. It is still the fact that more Americans have been killed by Americans than by all the country’s enemies combined. Whilst the battles raged, Britain and France agonised over whether to recognise the Confederacy, but managed to remain neutral. Yet the treatment meted out to the civilians of the South by Grant and Sherman was, according to Lord Palmerston, without precedent in warfare. Of all wars, civil wars are the most brutal. This is why Obama hesitated and Gates dismissed ‘loose talk’ of intervention in Libya. They had their national folk memories as well as more recent experience.

Cameron, who in the eyes of this blog has ruined his premiership and shown both naivete and lack of judgement, when rebuffed by the U.S. turned to an eager France. This was the silver lining of the moment, because it brought two natural allies together in an alternative diplomatic force to the reluctant U.S. France’s position was unambiguous. It recognised the insurgents and laid military plans. Then, joined by Britain, it engineered a compromise in the UN leading to the passage of UNSCR 1973 with fair-weather backing from the Arab League and with silent disapproval from Russia and Germany. It was ready to launch an immediate air strike on Gaddafi’s column advancing on Benghazi to deliver an assault without mercy, reducing it to a line of scrap and saving the rebel capital from a terrible retribution. At this point it would have been wise to take stock.

Britain, now back in its familiar role as the U.S’s junior partner was firing cruise missiles, launching air strikes and talking in terms that were outside the UN 1973, about targeting Gaddafi. In fact the Fox and Hague were hinting at it, but Gen Sir David Richards, the head of our military, was emphatic that such a plan would be illegal. Once again Britain is at business in the Middle East saying one thing and planning another, unaware, apparently, that in that and other theatres of the Muslim world it is, like the U.S. (which is self-aware) something of a busted flush.

Things are now going wrong. There is disagreement in NATO about what 1973 entitles them to do, the Rebels are a military shambles and the Gaddafi forces are not only remarkably resilient to air strikes, but are getting better in both tactics and implementation. As this post is in preparation the rebels, whose fortunes vary almost by the hour, are in headlong retreat and may be about to lose everything but Benghazi. Ideas that Gaddafi will pack his bags and walk into the hands of the international criminal court are simply ridiculous.

So now what? Arm the rebels?  That is manifestly against UNSCR 1970 and 1973, has been dismissed by the Secretary General of NATO and would do little good, because  not only are they untrained, but we do not even know exactly who they are or what they stand for and therefore into whose hands such armaments would finally go. France has gone back to its former position of distance from the U.S and Britain and talks of another resolution being required in the U.N.

This is exactly the kind of mission confusion which was warned about at the beginning. We no longer know where this is going. As the Tory MP Rory Stewart, who knows more about this whole theatre than any member of the government, has warned, bending the spirit of 1973 to make it mean something different and licence more than those who voted for it thought, would damage Britain’s credibility for more than twenty years ahead. 

Libya is now not just a crisis for its suffering  people, but it is en route to becoming a crisis for the British government. When Cameron took office this blog had hopes that he would turn out to be one of our best Prime Ministers. That opinion is now revised. He is at risk of becoming one of the worst.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 30th, 2011 at 6:47 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.