This result appears as a disaster for the Lib Dems. Actually it is confirmation of something already known, but by some ignored.
History shows us, from the time the proactive Liberals went with the Conservatives into the National government in 1931, that if the first past the post system prevails, an electoral pact with the Tories is a must. This is why candidates were still sometimes labeled National Liberal and Conservative even in the early fifties. The same thing happened with shades of Labour, when some of its candidates were called Labour and Co-Operative. Those Liberals who remained true to the idea of a separate and independent party, were reduced to a rump taxi load representing the farthest reaches of the British Isles, wholly detached from the mainstream and power.
The fact is quite simply this. In coalition politics, with the first past the post system, people vote for the senior coalition partner. Voting for the junior is pointless, so ballots go either to the governing party or the opposition. Arguments about influence and so forth are wholly ignored. It is quite different under AV. Then the junior partner can do quite well, as is the case all over Europe where various forms of proportional or second choice voting are common.
Nick Clegg’s task is to win the AV referendum. If he does that he will have led his party to a new dawn, when power through shared government will be frequent. If he loses he will have led his party to near oblivion. Unless he does an electoral pact with Cameron. To die hard Lib Dems, the label Lib Dem and Conservative, would be worse than oblivion anyway.
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