Whilst most Western capitals have been for a very long time uneasy about the autocratic and repressive style of Mubarak’s government, they have done little to admonish a reliable ally and the only Arab country to have completed a peace treaty with Israel. There may now be a price to pay.
Change is coming to Egypt, possibly in the form of a coup in the short term, but in some extension of democracy later. There was a time when democracy was the handmaiden of American ambitions. No longer is this so. Democracy is still the engine of U.S. foreign policy, but not all democratic governments see it in a favourable light, or are willing to go the American way. Europe, the dynamic economies of Asia, and South America too, are beginning to see a different way of doing things. They are also beginning to see a different hand of national interest. There are now two powers, each with both good and bad attributes as well as money. One of them has a good deal of money. Ready cash, at a time when the West has very little. I refer, of course to China.
The world dynamic has changed significantly. Moreover it has changed against America’s power, which has declined economically, though remains dominant militarily. The problem is that the shifting in the tectonic plates of the world is not military but economic. It is not based on inflaming a clash of interests, but on developing the common interest. Wars have got the protagonists little short of nowhere. Yet peace has taken many of the countries which have stuck to it to a considerable somewhere. America is several paces behind the point in world affairs which it occupied when George W. Bush came to power. China is many paces ahead. New governments look east for inspiration.
When Egypt emerges from its turmoil, and we must pray that is soon and without more bloodshed, its new government will be different in outlook, though not hostile. It will be Sunni. That will counter-balance Iran. It should keep the Americans from being difficult. Meanwhile Israel, obstinate, unyielding and provocative, needs to pay attention. It has few friends left in the world. It may soon have one fewer.
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