On the face of it this by-election (I do prefer the more old fashioned spelling bye-election) has something for everyone. Labour had a good win so Ed is given a boost. If his party had scraped home or perhaps lost, he would have been in trouble. Nick would have even more problems on his plate if the Lib Dems had been beaten into third place. As it was he could claim some teeny weeny increase in the share of the vote. The Tories, who appeared to come off worst, were relaxed, because everyone knew they were happy for their supporters to vote for their coalition partner in need.
Look at the figures and it is a rather different story. Labour not only increased its share of the votes, but it increased its actual votes. On the other hand the coalition partners polled together over 10,000 fewer votes than at the general election in May. Indeed whereas in May together they had 14186 votes more than Labour, yesterday the margin was down to 923. This is, therefore, a much better win for Ed than it first appears. It suggests his leadership plays better in the country than at Westminster. It also suggests that Labour’s core vote, shrinking for some years past, is returning. If Ed can sort out his top team so they can land some punches, things could start looking good.
David Cameron has work to do. His government is losing support before the cuts really start to bite. This is not because voters are against the cuts, but because there have been too many muddles of ministers’ own making and too many unfair outcomes for an outfit which made fairness its watchword. Not yet a red alert, but an orange one certainly.
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