Tribal States
Further emphasis is given, if any were needed, to the complete miscalculation of the Afghan project by understanding the precarious nature of tribal states. Colonial powers and other conquerors have, down through the pages of history, created stable regions by imposing a universal discipline on diverse tribal and ethnic interests. All is well while the governing power remains, but falls apart when that power retreats.
There are obvious examples. Britain after the Romans, Russia’s Near Abroad after the Soviets, Africa after the colonial powers and of course Iraq. There is a period of conflict and unrest, until one tribe dominates before the country often splits into separate parts. Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia for example. Afghanistan is like this too. When we leave, the new security forces will be seen as oppressive, enforcing a rule alien to many of the traditions and power bases across the country’s regions and the country will return to the loose shape it prefers, to which it has already returned after the British left India, after the Russians and will once again after NATO.
Whatever it does will not affect the plans of Al Qaeda nor affect the threat that organisation currently or in the future poses.
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