This Blog is not a Boris fan, but make no mistake the story is far from over. The Tories now have a small lead in every opinion poll but one. This is because Labour pulled ahead a while back, when Kier Starmer looked the more credible PM, as Boris was all over the place on both the pandemic and Brexit. Not because Labour had a set of policies to inspire voters. This is okay in normal times. Oppositions should not develop policy platforms until an election is within sight.
However governments are developing policies all the time and two of them are now working in our government’s favour. The vaccine roll out success and the EU Article 16 blunder. The roll out was not expected to work all that well and at first it didn’t. But now it is without doubt world leading and that reflects well on Number 10. And the problems with Brexit and they are many, can now be laid readily at the door of the intransigent and bureaucratic EU.
Moreover we are getting hints and leaks about infrastructure renewal, support for business post pandemic, NHS reforms, green industries and so on, which show a left leaning government which, if it has not stolen most of Labour’s clothes, is very happy to wear them. Boris himself has become more measured, thoughtful and cautious, or put simply, less bumbling. For the moment therefore the majority of voters appear willing to back him. In England.
But in the other nations of the UK he is not anything like as popular. So a lot could go wrong for Boris, driving voters to Starmer. At the moment that seems less likely than it was three months ago.