Trouble in the Camp
News comes in that Anadarko, one of BP’s partners in the ill fated Deepwater Horizon project is now breaking ranks and accusing the oil giant of gross negligence and so forth. A big lawsuit is in preparation. That is more bad news. There are other items of interest. The Russian President thinks that BP may face ‘anihilation’. The Chairman of the company, an expert at saying the wrong thing, has described this calamity as a ‘setback’, before announcing that the Chief Executive after his disastrous showing in Congress, is ceding direction of the relief operation to the Managing Director.
Shareholders who remain optimistic are brave indeed. Speculators buying shares now in the belief the worst is passed may burn their fingers. In the end there is some light however. Even if BP is forced into Chapter 11 or gets broken up or taken over, this is not like the failure of a retail chain or an auto maker. BP’s business is pumping oil. Oil is like gold of the past. It is money and it is always in demand and sadly the demand grows. So whatever happens there is a future because the world needs BP’s product. The question is whether BP in its current form can retain control of its assets and infrastructure.
The answer to that question will not be known until the leak is stopped, the damage quantified, the fines totalled and the mid-term US elections are over. A spike in the oil price would be timely but the fragile nature of the recovery and troubles with sovereign debt make that less likely.
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