Election 2019: So How Is It Going?

The answer is, with this unusual election, it is impossible to predict. Once again here are the key points.

If the key issue which drives voters is completing Brexit and moving on (even if only to months and years of more negotiations), Boris and the Tories will come out on top, although not necessarily with a working majority.

If changing the economic balance in favour of the many with huge government investment in services and infrastructure, plus curbing fat cats and dodgy landlords, to transform the country to the agenda of the rising generation, Corbyn will win, but again not with a majority. The SNP will be easy partners even if not formally in coalition.

There are five parties in the election, each fighting a different battle. In addition to the two main parties, the Brexit  Party wants a crash out of the EU, the Lib Dems want to stay in the EU and crash out of Brexit, the Greens say it must be all about Climate Change and the SNP are driven by Scottish Independence. All of them, bar Farage, are against Brexit. The impact of  any or all of them is hard to read. They can affect how people vote in each area, depending on giving priority to a core issue, over normal party loyalty or economic preference. They could end up with over a hundred seats between them and have a huge impact on what would then be a hung parliament. Only Farage would potentially give a lifeline to Boris short of seats to govern, but all of the others might well keep a Corbyn government afloat. Potentially therefore Boris needs more seats than Corbyn to win.

As the campaign develops one of the main parties could begin a surge. Only if that happens will we get a government, either Labour or Tory, which can actually govern old style. Otherwise it is back to another hung parliament, with very little changed by all the effort. It is possible, even likely, that the new Speaker will impose a more rigid interpretation of the rules, which might force a more positive voting pattern. The dissolved parliament was united and strident about what it was against, but was unable to discover what it was for. Maybe that will change.

Finally, will shock resignations and foot in the mouth comments, now making headlines, affect the final results? The answer is No if they stop now. But it could change to a Yes if it becomes a pattern. Both big parties are vulnerable to indiscipline, so the road ahead for both may be strewn with rocks and banana skins.

Once the Manifestos are published and we can see in detail what each main party proposes and how the public react to the offers, especially on the doorstep, it will be possible to think about predicting a potential outcome, rather than a somewhat confusing list of possibilities and pitfalls.


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