Trump thinks it was a success. Those Americans who are aware it took place will be relieved there were no disasters. His administration and its supporters will feel pleased. But what is really interesting is the change in dynamic which it inaugurates, about what America First means and how American power overseas will in future be used.
The first part of the tour with the Saudis was a big spectacular and was something of a triumph for Trump, projecting an image across the world which exuded authority and acceptance of US primacy. He used it to tell the Saudis and their allies that they must do more themselves to bring an end to the tyranny of IS. America will back you, but you must do more.
Israel and the Palestinians got the same message but tailored to their own situation. Israel was America’s number one ally in the Mid East, but go easy on settlements and we are not moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Yet. To the Palestinians it was the assurance that America would support them in the peace process as long as they made a genuine effort to engage. To both was the message Trump would back anything upon which they both agreed and would not adopt a position favouring one against the other. Very different in style, but not unwelcome to either side, who could see red lines and green lights clearly set out.
NATO was told to pay up its dues and rightly so. America would not and should not pay 70% of the cost of the alliance now that Europe’s economy was almost as big as that of the US. It was at the G7 summit in Sicily that things did not work out so well. Merkel described it as the G6 plus One. This time Trump’s view of world trade was different and his refusal to back the Paris Climate Change Accord was difficult. Merkel returned to Germany and made a speech about not being able to rely on the US and Britain in future. Europe would have to stand on its own feet.
Put simply this Blog would judge the tour a success, but perhaps for different reasons to the official line. Broadly the message to the parts of the world visited was that America First meant that the US was less willing to poke its nose into everybody else’s affairs, unless its own real (rather than contrived) interests were threatened, in which case watch out. But also if the rest of the world wants to play rough and break its toys, it can no longer rely on the US to mend them and clear up the mess.
The rising star of the journey was Ivanka. She is now widely described as America’s First Daughter. Something else to get used to.
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