Two Down, One to Go
The general view is that the second debate between the party leaders was more closely matched. Brown did better and so did Cameron. They both went for Clegg but he held on. Polls show them very even, but with most giving Clegg the narrow lead and Brown in the rear but not by much. Polls on who was best at the debate, are not polls on how people will vote. For these we will have to wait for the weekend.
What has I think been established is that this is a three party race. I cannot tell for sure, but I would not be surprised if there were not much change in opinion polls between now and polling day. The Lib Dems will hang in there but not go much further, the Tories will hover round their baseline in the low thirties and Labour will settle in the high twenties. This is not bad for Labour, very good for the Lib Dems and a disaster for the Tories. The price of their catastrophic campaign may well be awesome. The figures below illustrate.
The most favourable poll for Cameron as I write, is YouGov for the Sun today. Tories 34 Labour 29 Lib Dem 28. Using a computer calculator of seats, this produces Lab 284 Con 253 LD 84. This is not a Labour victory but it is a big Tory defeat. Unless there were a grand coalition they would not even be in government. These are the best figures for them, but they do not deliver the best result.
If we take another poll, LD 33 C 32 L 23 we get Con 261 Lab 208 LD 152. Although on a lower percentage, because Labour is really down in this sample, Cameron heads the biggest party. If he did a deal with Clegg he would be Prime Minister, but Clegg and Brown could still form a government excluding the Tories. Something like this happened when the Tories did a recovery in 1910, after their 1906 earthquake defeat. They had to wait another twelve years before they formed a government. If we take a poll where Brown does better at 28 with Cameron on 32 and Clegg on 31, this is what we get: Lab 276 Con 236 LD 109.
These figures show that with three parties in play in an uneven sized constituency electoral system it is not just who is in front, but which of the other parties are placed where. The case for electoral reform is clear. So is something else. It is now virtually impossible for Cameron to get a majority on his own. For that to happen there would have to be some very fancy tactical voting to get rid of Labour. At present there is just as much chance that such voting would be designed to keep the Tories out. Then again, suppose it is organised to try and get the Lib Dems in?
This election is now impossible to call and wide, wide open.
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