Yes. In spite of what the opinions polls say (they do not have the methodology to deal with counter-intuitive cross party political trends) if there were a general election now, May would probably lose. This is not going to happen because, under the 2011 Act which provides for fixed term parliaments, there would have to be a two thirds majority in favour of dissolution; it is no longer in the hands of the prime minister. If May were somehow defeated on a vote of confidence, (some imbroglio over the Supreme Court?) the Queen would have to send for Corbyn and only when he was defeated, which might be easy, could parliament be dissolved. So when you hear commentators talk about a ‘snap election’ they are talking about something from the past. It is not possible now.
However if it were possible or somehow happened, a May loss would not mean a Corbyn win. It could mean a hung parliament with the Lib Dems back to about fifty seats, possibly up to a hundred, and UKIP with about a dozen. There would be no party with a majority, nor one able to form a majority on an agreed programme for government. But there would be two cross party majorities. The first would be either for a very soft Brexit or even to call the whole thing off. The second would be for an end to austerity. That rules the Tories out from even making the tea in any coalition even with UKIP support, so it would be likely to compose Labour, Lib Dems and Scot Nats.
The thinking behind this analysis goes like this. There have been two by-elections since Brexit (not including the constituency of the murdered Jo Cox). The Lib Dems came from the nadir of their 2015 massacre, to a close second in the first and they won the second. And the centre-piece of their political platform is that they are against Brexit and would try to reverse it. They would vote against Article 50 and demand a referendum on the final terms. Leave won the referendum because Leavers had passion. Well now the passion is with Remain.
There is driving this revival of Remain energy a new factor, which never came up in the referendum. Everybody knows what the terms for remaining in the EU are, and being there is part of our lives and in many cases our jobs and our savings. But nobody is even vaguely able to articulate what Brexit means, the effect it will have, what the legal implications are and what the outcome will be. There is no agreement on what opportunities it actually brings, or what costs it entails.
It appears there will have to be compromise on either immigration or contributions or both, to stay in the single market. One part of Brexit cannot live with the first of those and the other part cannot live with the second. There is no majority in parliament or in the country for hard Brexit. About a third of voters and the same proportion of Tory party would go for hard, but the remaining two thirds would not, whether it is a general election or another referendum. So the way forward is far from clear. Depending on the deal on offer it might even be blocked.
It is all made worse by chaos in the Cabinet, leaks to the media, asides from ministers conveying opposite Brexit positions and the emergence of a bossy side of May which is beginning to irritate. The complete failure of Hammond to seize the economic initiative and offer real prospects for economic revival will prove a long term political disaster. The mounting financial crisis in public services, damaging the prisons, social care, mental health, the NHS, Child Protection and the railways (why does the government not end that Southern franchise and rescue the commuters whose lives are being made a misery?), is approaching a point that must surely lead public patience to snap. Perhaps the lesson of Richmond Park is that already has.
Next week all eyes will be on the Supreme Court.