One of the problems this blog is going to have with the Trump presidency is that I agree with him on some things but not on others. I support him on the trade, but not the tax, aspect of his economic policy and I applaud his fresh approach to the current train wreck of America’s foreign policy. But I disagree with his assertions on Iran. So I think the outgoing director of the CIA was right to warn Trump about tearing up the Iran nuclear treaty, but talking nonsense when he blamed Russia for everything in Syria, during a recent interview with the BBC.
Foreign policy is not a competitive sport, like football or swimming, where you support your team whatever they do. It is a political discipline which, if it goes wrong, leads to the death of millions, as history shows us. In a nuclear world it could bring human life to an end, so it is important to think it through. Each point of tension has to be dissected, analysed and tested to find where the tension is building, through what historical decisions, what the dangers are and what path will lead to the best, but usually far from ideal, outcome at the least cost overall, and especially in innocent lives. Force should be off the list, but if there is no other way, it must be a decisive knockout blow. It must not be used in restricted environments where it has enough punch to cause terrible suffering but not enough to deliver a decisive outcome. That is the military equivalent of slow torture. The brain dead souls who inhabit the present US State Department are about to be woken up by the hot blast of new thinking from the Trump administration. The same cannot be said for the UK foreign office, not least because the entire cabinet appears in a stupor brought on by a binge on Brexit.
As far as Syria was concerned, it was a perfectly stable country which had played a measured and sometimes positive role in the endless Israeli quarrel with its Arab neighbours, led by an anglophile married to an English born Syrian, in a family ruling dynasty which was politically intolerant and bolstered by a torture driven state security system, but in which all minorities lived and worshiped according to their own traditions in a secular state. They enjoyed life in a prosperous economy with excellent public education and healthcare.
Along came the Arab Spring, not a good name perhaps, and the Sunni minority, denied power in Syria always, and denied it in Iraq since it was invaded by the Anglo-Americans hell bent on creating a’ beacon of democracy'(!!), decided to rise up in revolution. The West backed them with silly rhetoric, a bit of cash, a few weapons of water pistol potency and goaded them on. Russia urged caution. Putin and Lavrov warned that a civil war in Syria would be disaster. The West dismissed them as ogres and declared Assad would be gone by Christmas. How may years ago was that ?
You know the rest. So does Donald Trump.