This must now be a question, even if there is not yet an answer. The scale of the legal complexities now emerging on every front are beginning to frighten even those who understand them. Not only are there problems with the constitutional process, but parliament has to enact something watertight, or else there could be a legal challenge all the way to the EU Supreme Court from some angry anti-Brexiteer or corporation. There are no civil servants and very few lawyers who were active in 1972 and recall what our law and process was like before we joined the EEC. So everybody is on a learning curve.
Moreover it is becoming clear that political problems are emerging in the EU itself, arising out of a failure to deliver an even share of prosperity across the EU, not least because of the failure to recognize that a currency, the euro, cannot operate without a government. Greece is bust but Germany pretends it isn’t and everybody does as Germany says. But unrest is building in Italy and France and to a lesser extent in Spain and Portugal. Electoral stirrings are felt in Belgium, Holland and Denmark. By the time the May government works out what its negotiating position is and has a legally untouchable mandate to trigger Article 50, the EU could itself be so politically convulsed that it is in no position to agree anything, as unanimity is the requirement for such a significant event as Brexit. Thus at the end of two years we could find ourselves out, with multiple legal and contractual issues and liabilities unresolved, yet still half in because these unresolved issues would not allow us fully to detach. Like a ghost haunting the corridors of an increasingly weather beaten EU Commission.
It may still turn out well and all is not lost, but it is a bigger project than previously foreseen. The biggest mistake of all was to fail to investigate the feasibility of Brexit and plan what would need to be done, under what legal structure and with what objectives, before the referendum was called. The lack of such a plan and the seeming inability to put one together by the fractious May government is reported to have reduced senior civil servants to ‘despair’. Another Cameron mistake in an ever growing list. The country is now in the position of having voted for something that was not available on anything like the terms promised. Like a holiday sold for a luxury experience in a hotel which, on arrival it is found, is not yet built.
But, and this is another scenario not foreseen, something strange is happening. The economy continues to grow (albeit at the very low western level), manufacturing is picking up due to the lower pound and consumers appear to be spending with some confidence. The reason may be this. Our economy has a massive trade imbalance, the second highest in the world, as much because of too many imports as because of too few exports. If we simply walked away from the EU in the style of leaving a party which had lost its zing, having failed to reach any worthwhile agreement with the other twenty-seven, by then in their own political turmoil, two things could happen. Either trading arrangements stay as they are or the EU slaps tariffs on our goods. In which case we slap the equivalent on theirs and create vast opportunities for home manufacture of almost everything. And viable home food markets for farmers no longer undercut by produce from eastern Europe. So either way it might not really matter quite as much as we think.
If you are now confused because this blog appears to be debating opposites with itself, you are right. It is to make the point that there may be actually a lot more in bureaucratic process in the EU than there is substance and effect. Everyone has to live and when push comes to shove they will go on doing so. Even EU member states. The power of Brussels may be a mirage. If that is the case the concentration should be not arguing with each other and with the EU, but building a Brexit proof economy which will prosper on its own terms, through its own initiatives, developing opportunities of its own making.
Back to Hammond.
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