Whichever way you look, problems are piling up over Brexit. This is because the Brexit which everyone was promised is a fantasy. Even if a soft Brexit were pushed through the EU council of ministers, the chances of an absolute majority in the EU parliament backing it are slim and as we now see from the Canada trade agreement debacle, the chances of getting all parts of the 27 member states to ratify some special deal which favours Britain are near to zero.
In fairness to May she was not the author of this misfortune; she came in to pick up the pieces. Cameron had promised throughout the referendum campaign that if defeated he would carry on, trigger Article 50 immediately and negotiate the exit. He broke that promise straight away. Furthermore the notion of Brexit was never a product of policy analysis, but rather of emotional prejudice, which became a source of never ending civil war within the Tory party. Cameron’s decision to offer the referendum had nothing to do with changing the fortunes of his country. It was designed to end the civil war in his party. Of the 17 million who voted Brexit, it is clear that at least 5 million voted to kick the political class, the establishment and the bankers in the teeth, without a thought for what Brexit actually was.
A proper government would have had, before proceeding with the referendum, Cobra style case studies prepared both for staying in and for Brexit, what the future would hold under both and how the process of Brexiting would work and with what objectives in view. Those objectives would have been stress tested to see if they were achievable or based on wishful thinking and fantasy. This would have led to a coherent and sensible plan, allowing a timely and orderly procession to the chosen Brexit option, with all the stakeholders clear about our vision of the way forward. Instead of which the good ship GB set sail into unknown seas, without charts or compass and without agreement among the crew, the captain who proposed the voyage having jumped overboard before it left harbour.
So Hard Brexit, ranging from rock hard to jolly uncomfortable, is the only option and although the three Brexiteers in the cabinet, Boris, Davis and Fox will go with that, the House of Commons will not. Scotland is already making very angry noises, the governments of Wales and Northern Ireland are anxious, the City is dismayed, business investment is on hold and still we have no idea what the government’s plans actually are, if they exist at all.
Now we learn that, contrary to what we were told by the promoters of this reckless adventure, our membership of the WTO is via the EU and will have to be ‘renewed’. That will require detailed negotiations which cannot begin until we have left the EU, will take about two years and have to be agreed by all the other members, over 160 of them, including the likes of Russia, whom we constantly upbraid and criticize. Downing Street still falls back on the mantra that Brexit means Brexit, but neither it nor anyone else knows what Brexit means. Well the truth is beginning to dawn.
There will be consequences. The only relief may be if in the up coming elections in 2017 Merkel, Hollande and Renzi are voted out and replaced by populist Eurosceptics. In that event there will be a real chance for the whole EU to start to unravel. That would be the worst option of all. Forest fires start from the smallest spark, or fools like Cameron, playing with matches.