Tory By-Election Shock: Liberal Democrat Surprise.

This result is very significant. It is way off the national opinion polls with not just a big drop in the Tory  share of the  vote but a big advance for the Lib Dems. This will play heavily into politics at Westminster, because the Lib Dems are the only party which is actively campaigning to reverse Brexit. Translated into real politics it means this. The government stands very little chance of getting much beyond Hard Brexit in its negotiations, which will be pretty much a choice between hard Brexit or no Brexit.

The government (in neither the government nor the Commons is there a majority who want Brexit) will have difficulty in demonstrating the advantages of that leap in the dark, while the snags will be obvious and the pain of falling living standards and rising costs will be beginning to hurt. When May comes to the Commons to get the deal passed it will be defeated. The subsequent general election will be unwinnable for the Tories, because unlike the referendum, not every vote will count. It will depend where it is cast. Moreover voting for the proposition will almost certainly push Scotland to independence and bring an end to the United Kingdom. England, the Brexit stronghold, will shrink from that. Brexit will be over.

The only person who can save the day is Hammond, by introducing an eye popping economic stimulus in November to run alongside the fall in sterling, which will demonstrate to the country and to the world that the future for the whole UK, whatever sort of Brexit, in or out of Europe, is golden. If he cannot do that Brexit sooner or later is over.

As for the Tory Right Wing who have campaigned for Brexit for years, and the imploded UKIP founded for the single issue of Brexit, they will face a devastating price for their complete failure to invest the intellectual energy to plan and to prepare so that they could lead their country forward through the biggest political event, short of war, in its modern history. They will pay with their dreams.

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