Economic Scares: Stop it!

Decisions driven by fear are rarely the best. If they turn out wrong and the fear turns out to have been either groundless or confected (as in the Iraq War and Weapons of Mass Destruction) there is a sense of national outrage which never goes away. It is therefore important to avoid such tactics in national conversations such as the current referendum campaign. The latest scare that if we leave the EU all our pensions will go down the tubes or whatever is ridiculous.

There will be an economic event in the not too distant future whether we leave the EU or stay in it. This is because our unbalanced economy, with manufacturing in decline, borrowing up, growth down, imports up, house price inflation rampant, housing costs preposterous, productivity low, the rich getting richer at the expense of the poor and the gap between the two growing all the time, services starved of cash and a whole lot more, is on life support and has to change. This could happen because of the shock of leaving the EU or because we stay. It could happen because of something in China, or Russia or the US (President Trump?) or it could happen because the gasket suddenly blows.

But it will happen. There will be a crash in asset values and a dramatic fall in the value of the pound. And so there should be because both are mathematically essential to create the conditions in which real growth and prosperity for all, more fairly shared but there for everyone from dustman to Duke, can actually happen. But happen it must.

The issue of Europe is quite separate. It is political and emotional and to do with brotherhood and well-being, peace rather than conflict, working together rather than toiling alone, being part of something bigger than oneself. Either you believe that the EU is the most successful and worthy political union since the fall of the Roman Empire which has put an end to centuries of pointless slaughter and you will vote to remain a central part of it,  or like Boris, you believe it is as bad as Hitler and the Nazis and you will vote against. If you cannot make up your mind or you scared and spooked, it is probably better to stay at home. Then whatever the outcome it will not be your fault. Or will it?

2 Responses to “Economic Scares: Stop it!”

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