Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The Constitution

A gobsmacked world  looks on in dismay as the UK slowly throttles itself in a tangle of argument, prejudice, constitutional failure and muddled thinking. So the first reforms are to the constitution. We must repeal the Five Year Parliament Act, restore the royal prerogative of the prime minister to ask for a dissolution without any formal reason and enshrine in law the nature and extent of the executive’s prerogative powers across the piece.

The principles are that sovereignty is owned by the people and expressed through their representatives in parliament. The Executive governs and Parliament legislates. Parliament can sack the executive and the executive can, via the monarch, dissolve parliament; a balance of power which has given this Union a stability of governance in even the darkest hours, but which is now lost.

There must be provision for a fair representation of the issues and interests of the Home Nations, either in a UK parliament, or perhaps by scrapping the House of Lords and replacing it with an elected senate to act as the revising chamber for all and the final backstop for the Union. The title Lords could be retained both for the institution and the elected members.

For all parliaments, not just the devolved assemblies, there has to be a modern voting system which ensures proper representation and majority government, either with or without coalition. The first past the post system, still in use in Westminster and many local authorities, works properly only if there are two parties. Otherwise you end up with power in the hands of representatives most people voted against. In the modern world of technology and social media where the electorate is informed and connected as never before, quite independently of official news, FPP is unfit for purpose

The State

There was once a clear understanding of where the state ended and the private sector began. There was also a clear boundary between individual responsibility to provide and manage, separated from the state’s obligation to support and deliver. Excessive privatisation, outsourcing and regulatory quangos contribute to vast elements of everyday life, paid for or subsidised by taxpayers, but outside democratic scrutiny or ministerial responsibility.

Public utilities and public services are in many cases now at crisis point, made worse by austerity as the norm and shareholder priority as a standard.  Wholesale nationalisation for the sake of it never works but state ownership of critical infrastructure and services certainly does. The state should be player and partner and at times competitor. But for monopolies like the generation and distribution of electricity the state must be the owner. The retail market can be open to private firms, but the state must be an option for those who want to buy their power direct.

At the moment state owned banks are in competition with those privately owned, even in the High Street, demonstrating a seamless blend of different ownerships, in the public interest. Some rail franchises are or have been state run with great success, so the state as a competitive player works. But outsourcing, for example the management of prisons or policing, so that they become a source of profit for shareholders, creates an unacceptable conflict of interest with unsatisfactory employment conditions and delivery shortcomings.

The Economy

The current financial sector dominated economy, powered by asset inflation, is reaching the end of its life. Already it is causing hardship and serious inequalities, as well as sucking money away from new wealth creation. This in turn depletes the tax base, reducing available funding for public services and infrastructure investment, including housing, transport, communications and clean energy.

Reform requires quantitative tightening in the financial sector and an increase in the money supply into the base of the economy to fire up an economic regeneration founded on new wealth, greater than anything seen for several generations. It is complex and beyond the scope of this post. But it is worth laying down a marker. It is a must with or without Brexit. Without it, nothing else will work well enough to fulfil  ambitions for a better future.

Once again parliament has shown it cannot govern. Agreeing Boris’s Brexit deal is pointless if there is no agreement on how to put it into law. The normal structure of government and opposition has to fall away to be replaced by consensus. Getting the Withdrawal Agreement through all stages in two days is not reasonable, but doing it in five days is. It is more than well known already; it is a modified Theresa May WA without the backstop. So instead of the adversarial line up, the national interest, and the majority of the people of this country who want to move on, demands cooperation and consensus. Having agreed the thing in principle that should be easy.

But it is not, because all those opposing the government want to shower amendments at every level, which will not only make speedy passage impossible, but potentially change the whole nature of the deal. Fearing that last outcome, the government has paused the deal, so we are stuck. If parliament grinds to an impasse, it becomes unfit for purpose. Parliament is sovereign, but in a democracy,  it must be the case that ownership of that sovereignty is with the people. When their vehicle breaks down, they have the power and right to replace it. Unless that right is denied them.

And now that is what is happening. Our busted constitution prevents the prime minister from calling an election and endless manoeuvring for party advantage compounded by disagreements within Labour, stops Corbyn moving a motion of no confidence to bring down the government, which he would almost certainly win. Officially the argument is that a No Deal prohibition must be secured first, but that falls away, since the quickest way to do that would have been to let the WA through to become law. So we are left with the real reason. Labour fears it might lose. Not Labour in the country, the membership and the Unions are gung ho for a fight. But Labour in the shadow cabinet, especially Labour from Islington.

Because what would happen is that Boris would go, Corbyn would temporarily move into Downing Street, but under the idiotic FTPA, he would have to gain a vote of confidence. He would get that only if his policy was to secure a long enough Brexit extension and hold a general election, followed by a referendum. But that would mean that Labour, not Boris, would be the government in charge of the Brexit chaos. And all that would have to be explained on the doorsteps, drowning out their very attractive election manifesto, which, without uncompleted Brexit as a running sore, would be a major vote winner.

So, as I write this, we are stuck. Because even if we have an election, all the polls indicate another hung parliament. It might be that Labour would be the largest party, or it might be Boris. But it could be that the Lib Dems, whose scrap it Brexit policy is the only one anybody understands, might enjoy a surge back to previous highs in the 60 seat level, making four parties, Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Scot Nats. The Lib Dems and the Scot Nats want to kill Brexit and  in that scenario they would have over 100 seats potentially between them, most of Labour is Remain and so will be most of those Tories who get back in. So that could be the end of the Brexit story with the recall of Article 50.

But the numbers could be different, Farage might be there, leading to more deadlock or even a crash Brexit. In either event the saga then continues for not months, but years, even decades, during which the Union will certainly fall.

Which takes us on to Part Two.