Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Has Farage been put back in his box?

Everybody thought the Brexit Party was on a landslide cruise to an easy victory at Peterborough. He promised a shock for British politics. In the event Farage was the one to be shocked by Labour’s surprise win. But when you think about it, this was no surprise. When it comes to winning domestic elections Farage is singularly unsuccessful. He himself has never won a parliamentary seat in spite of multiple tries. Neither has any party he has led. This is not because he is a bad politician. He is actually a champion populist motivator but the causes for which he stands  have a high water mark well below the level of political conquest.

Yet they are gold standard for creating political upset. Farage now has the power to make it impossible for the Tories to win a general election. Neutralising that power will become a primary focus of the post May government. As always the poisoned chalice of Brexit continues the be the only drinking vessel for a troubled country in changing times.

BBC charges the over 75’s

All my life the BBC has been a essential feature of everyday life. I can even recall hearing the news being read on the Home Service and listened to with great attention by the grown ups during WW2. I have also supported the licence fee and after an adult lifetime of payment felt I had earned the freedom from liability when I passed 75. Note the word liability. Everybody who had a broadcasting receiving instrument, in other words a radio or TV was liable, in return for which the government, through the BBC, provided the content free. It worked well, but now its time has passed. It is essential that the BBC have the right to charge for their service. It is also essential that consumers have the right to opt out of paying for it and receiving it.

By making that choice they should not be liable to criminal prosecution for receiving an alternative for which they pay either by watching advertising or by subscription. In other words the BBC should become a subscription service. No subscriptions, no money. Real life. There are now so many alternatives to choose from the whole concept is way past its sell by date. It was so good in its day. Like so many good things, the time comes when it is over.

The Tory Leader

The only two who are credible as future prime ministers are Boris the showman, or Rory (Stewart), the brains. The Tory party needs a showman. The country needs the brains. The rest are rubbish.

It comes as no surprise that Trump has intervened, against diplomatic protocol, in domestic UK politics, by backing Boris for PM. Nor that John Bolton wants the UK out of Europe. The US is short on Western allies at the moment. Having the UK detached from Europe and back under US dominance would be handy. The two together make a combination which is the biggest in everything except population. It is also clear that there are going to be more shocks during Trump’s controversial visit to the UK.

Whether this will be good for Boris depends on where you are in the political and generational firmament. It will help him with Tory members, making his election certain unless he blows it. That he might do so, is not unlikely. But if he does make it to leader with Trump’s support, he will pay a price in any general election campaign among young and remain voters who will hold the keys to the outcome.

Once again this blog protests that, for the first time with a party in power, an external electorate, outside parliament, is in effect choosing the next PM. To describe the position in which the Queen is thus put as constitutionally shakey, is to understate the case. The formalities will, of course be impeccable as May will remain in power until the change of Tory leader is made, so that she can advise the Queen whom to send for. But even that poses a problem.  Because everyone knows that Boris’s flagship legislation will be a No Deal Brexit. And that cannot get through because even leading Tory ministers are prepared to bring down their own government to prevent it. So the Queen will be sending for someone who cannot govern. That is  constitutionally vexatious at the very least.

When Callaghan took over from Wilson, Major from Thatcher, Brown from Blair and May from Cameron, only MPs were involved in the choice. And all those governments had a majority in the House of Commons at the time of the changeover, without coalition or confidence and supply support. So although the potential for challenge was there, by ending the contest within parliament, any potential legal challenge was avoided. This time might not be so easy.

The Tory party has no majority and it cannot secure one for any version of its flagship policies. Legally it might well be argued that it is now Her Majesty’s constitutional duty to send for Corbyn, or at least send for the Tory in parliament most likely to be able to govern as of now. The Tory party in the country can elect whoever they like to be leader but in present circumstances that is constitutionally irrelevant and supported by precedent. Chamberlain remained leader of his party for several months after Churchill became PM in 1940. In fact he only succeeded to lead the Tory party because of the vacancy caused by Chamberlain’s death.

The truth is this is all a terrible mess.